In a closed Sberbank analysts' report, the probability of Russia's victory in the war against Ukraine was estimated at 7%

Sberbank analysts estimated the probability of Russia's victory in the war against Ukraine at 7%. Black Mirror hackers published an internal document of the bank, writes The Insider.

The Black Mirror hacking group published an analytical memo from Sberbank, which describes various scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine and assesses the probability of their implementation. The document, titled "Scenarios for Achieving Peace in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict," is dated April 2026.

As Black Mirror claims, the memo was obtained from the correspondence of Sberbank head German Gref (he acted as the sender).

The introductory part of the memo lists the economic difficulties Russia faced amid the war (all data are as of April): from a budget deficit (4.58 trillion Russian rubles ($53 billion)) for the first quarter with an annual plan of 3.8 trillion Russian rubles ($45 billion) and a high key rate (15%), which "suppresses the civilian sector," to a drop in oil and gas revenues (by 45.4% — to 1.44 trillion rubles) and the disabling of oil refining enterprises as a result of systematic strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10-15% of oil refining capacities damaged).

"The government is considering increasing the deficit and military spending. The military multiplier is estimated at 1.5× — every ruble of military spending generates 1.5 rubles of GDP, but at the cost of crowding out the civilian sector."

The document also notes that Russia has lost "up to 35% of air defense system components," while the replenishment of S-300/400 air defense systems is slower than losses. "Without restoring the air defense dome over rear facilities, strikes will intensify."

"Personnel deficit at defense enterprises: 80-400 thousand people. Ammunition production showed a decline for the first time in September 2025. Three critical deficits: microelectronics (without Western components, high-precision weapons become many times more expensive), ammunition (limiting factor — people, not money), engines (aviation, missile, ship — all overloaded)."

The document provides an estimate of Russia's military losses: 20-25 thousand people per month. "90% of new contract soldiers go to replenishment, not to forming new units," the memo says. However, it is noted that a full-scale mobilization is not planned, as "political risk is unacceptable."

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