How many Belarusians voted for Lukashenka in previous elections? Secret figures from state polls published

Alexander Lukashenka. Photo: Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

The independent Belarusian Sociological Group presented a study titled "Trust in an Era of Change: Electoral History of Belarus (2001-2025)". Its value lies in the fact that it is the first time the results of closed studies conducted by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus — regarding trust in Alexander Lukashenka and the level of his electoral support — have been published.

Recall that state sociologists constantly conduct sociological surveys that measure the "level of trust" in various state bodies — for example, courts, police, military. This also includes measuring trust in Alexander Lukashenka. The results of such studies do not become public.

The Belarusian Sociological Group includes Henadz Korshunau, who headed the Institute of Sociology in 2018-2020. Therefore, it is understandable that he might have retained archival data from the institution.

What is important to understand: before Korshunau — an honest sociologist who was forced to resign in September 2020 — the institution was headed by KGB officer Heorhiy Yavelkin (2000-2008) and staunch communist Ihar Katliarou (2008-2018). It cannot be ruled out that they might have adjusted the survey results to be more favorable to the authorities. On the other hand, if the results of such polls were not published, then Lukashenka's supporters might have been interested in obtaining a more or less realistic result, even considering the level of fear in society.

Read also: "70% is not enough, let's make it 90%". How Shpileuskaya demanded Korshunau to change the results of the sociological poll

2001

In those elections, the Central Election Commission painted Lukashenka with 76%, while the single opposition candidate, Uladzimir Hancharyk, had 16%.

During the Institute of Sociology's survey, 45% of respondents said they voted for Lukashenka, 11% for Hancharyk. In addition, almost half of those polled evaded answering — 13% said they were against all, and 30% "had no answer".

2006

According to the Institute of Sociology's calculations, Lukashenka's trust level was 50% (it is not specified in which month the study was conducted).

Official calculations of the Central Election Commission: Lukashenka — 83%, Milinkevich — 6%, Kazulin — 2%.

However, the Institute of Sociology's poll yielded different results for votes in the elections: Lukashenka — 63%, Milinkevich — 6%, Kazulin — 1%. But again, a giant number of those who did not want to answer state sociologists was recorded — 26%. And another 3% were against all.

2010

Detailed data for 2010 is only available in the NISEPD study by Professor Aleh Manayeu, but there is no trust in it whatsoever, so analyzing this data makes no sense.

However, Lukashenka's trust level, according to the Institute of Sociology's calculations, was 38%. Interestingly, a year later, in 2011, amidst the economic crisis, it dropped to 34%.

2015

Lukashenka's trust level this year was 42%.

However, during a state poll asking who Belarusians voted for, unusual results were recorded.

According to the pre-election poll, 45% intended to vote for Lukashenka. Other candidates (including Tatsiana Karatkevich) had support at the level of statistical error — below 1%. But as many as 52% refused to answer the sociologists' question.

As a result, the Central Election Commission painted Lukashenka with 84%.

2020

Read also: Official Sociology: Lukashenka's Trust Rating in Minsk — 24%, Yarmoshyna — 11%

According to the results of the post-election state poll, 21% voted for Alexander Lukashenka, and 33% for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. 11% stated that they did not vote, and another 26% did not wish to answer the question.

Meanwhile, Lukashenka was painted with 80%, and Tsikhanouskaya with only 10%.

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