Denmark warns Russia could attack a NATO country in the coming months
Denmark's Military Intelligence and Security Service (DDIS) stated that Russia could conduct a limited military operation against one of the NATO countries in the coming months. At the same time, Danish intelligence assesses the likelihood of such a scenario as low but growing, writes The Moscow Times.
DDIS head Thomas Arenkiel suggested that Russia could deploy a small number of troops, including those without insignia, to the territory of a neighboring NATO country. As a possible justification, he cited the need to "protect local Russian minorities."
Another option could be the use of long-range weapons against infrastructure used to support Ukraine. According to the intelligence chief, such actions could be aimed at splitting the North Atlantic Alliance.
At the same time, Danish intelligence considers a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO country to be highly unlikely. According to its assessment, the Kremlin would need about six months to build up a military force for such an operation.
Denmark also warns of an increase in Russian hybrid operations against European countries. Possible actions include destructive cyberattacks capable of disabling critical societal systems, as well as sabotage that could lead to human casualties.
Danish Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus stated that Russia is now facing more pressure than at any point since the beginning of the war in February 2022, but is not achieving its goals and therefore, according to him, is attacking countries that support Ukraine. At the same time, Danish authorities believe that Russia will not be able to achieve a significant breakthrough on the front in the next six months.
Earlier, Western intelligence services repeatedly stated that Russia could shift its focus to NATO countries in a few years. Allies' fears increased after a series of attacks on European infrastructure, which, however, did not reach the level required to invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defense.
According to Danish intelligence, Russia will still need about two years to create a real threat of a regional war, and about five years to start a large-scale war in Europe.
Warnings about a possible attempt by Russia to test NATO's readiness to respond were also previously made by the intelligence services of the Czech Republic, Sweden, Latvia, and Poland. The head of the Czech Security Information Service, Michal Koudelka, said that it could be a limited invasion, false-flag provocations, or a large-scale influence campaign that could occur in the coming months.
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