Farewell to coal is postponed. Dirty fuel is back in fashion thanks to Trump, Putin and global warming

Coal is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions in energy, and greenhouse gases are the main cause of global warming. All countries in the world agreed back in 2015 to reduce emissions.

Phasing out coal was the easiest way to achieve the goal of keeping warming within +1.5 to +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels of 1850-1900. Indeed, in 2019 and 2020, the coal industry experienced a decline amidst the growing popularity of gas as a cleaner alternative and the development of renewable energy — wind turbines and solar panels. Therefore, in 2021, at the climate summit in Glasgow, a bold attempt was made to agree not to build new coal-fired power plants.

However, nothing came of it; no one wanted to commit to abandoning accessible and cheap fuel. A year later, it was no longer a priority. In 2022, Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and declared a gas war on Europe. Gas prices soared, and coal once again became the only available alternative to more environmentally friendly fuel for several years.

This continued until 2025, a record year for coal demand in history. 2026 promised to be a turning point — or so the IEA, created by rich energy-consuming countries to forecast demand and avoid an energy crisis, believed last winter.

However, Donald Trump intervened. First, he dismantled his predecessor Joe Biden's "green agenda" and slowed down the implementation of renewable sources in favor of fossil fuel producers: oil, gas, and coal. Then he decided to attack Iran.

Coal instead of oil, gas and water

Due to the war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas supplies from Middle Eastern countries were virtually cut off. The largest buyers in Asia and Europe had to resort again to the available traditional alternative — coal.

Павялічыць

At the same time, a climate catastrophe struck. The summer was record hot, air conditioners worked at full capacity, so demand for electricity grew, aggravating the war-induced energy deficit.

As if on cue, an unprecedentedly strong El Niño phenomenon is forming in the Pacific Ocean, which, albeit temporarily, will still raise global temperatures, meaning it will further increase demand for cooling energy and reduce its production at hydroelectric power plants.

As a result, the IEA had to revise its forecast and once again postpone the burial of the coal industry. While last winter energy agency experts believed that in 2026, demand for coal would decrease by almost 1.5% from the record highs of 2025, they now forecast a growth of 1.2%.

Coal was once the world's primary fuel, but in the 1960s, it ceded leadership to oil. Currently, oil accounts for 33.5% of the global energy balance, coal for 28%, and gas for 25%. Two-thirds of all coal is burned in power plants to generate electricity. About 13% goes to metallurgy, and the remaining almost 20% to other industries, primarily the chemical industry.

It was precisely in energy that coal was actively replaced by gas, as gas-fired power plants are significantly more efficient than coal-fired ones, and their greenhouse gas emissions are approximately half as low. Therefore, at the heart of all predictions of the end of the coal era lay the belief that natural gas would replace coal.

However, the main gas producers are losing their reputation as reliable suppliers one after another. First, Russia voluntarily renounced this title by turning off the tap to Europe. Now it is Qatar's turn – the main supplier of liquefied natural gas to fast-growing Asian economies.

In response to US and Israeli strikes, Iran bombed the world's largest gas liquefaction plant in Qatar — an American ally. At least 17% of capacities were put out of action. Consumers in Asia, Europe, and other regions doubted their own reliance on liquefied gas as a reliable source of affordable and relatively clean energy. They began to switch to renewable sources — wind and solar energy — with renewed vigor, and to launch coal-fired power plants to replace gas ones, to regulate grid load when the sun isn't shining, the wind isn't blowing, and reservoirs have dried up due to global warming.

First — security, then — air and climate

Faced with the Kremlin's energy crisis of early 2021-2022, the two largest developing economies and most populous countries in the world, China and India, bet on coal.

"For China and India, their own coal mining has become the most important element of energy security. After supply disruptions and coal shortages in 2021, both countries significantly increased production and reached historical highs. And since demand did not keep up, stockpiles grew," notes the IEA.

As a result, they had to slow down, and last year, miners produced less coal for the first time in years. At the same time, India and China, for the first time in half a century, reduced electricity generation at coal-fired power plants, despite an overall increase in electricity demand. All thanks to the explosive growth of renewable energy sources.

In 2026, the reduction in coal production will continue and amount to 2% even amid rising demand for it, the IEA believes. But what will happen then — only Trump and the guardians of the Iranian Revolution know.

"The forecast for 2027 completely depends on the conflict in the Middle East. If liquefied gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz resume, global coal production will increase by approximately 0.3%," writes the IEA.

In other words, nothing will change. Overall, a 0.3% increase will herald a new promise of the decline of the coal era, as it effectively means stagnation, given that China — the world's largest consumer and producer of coal — will only ensure growth because this year it reduced production due to the worst coal mine accident in years.

Farewell to coal is postponed

If the Iranian war continues, the role of coal in the world will only grow. Especially considering that the authorities of many countries, like India, encourage the extraction of dirty fuel for energy security, while others, like Kazakhstan, increase production counting on export revenues.

Meanwhile, China is replacing not only gas in power generation with coal, but also oil in the chemical industry. It has created the world's largest coal chemical industry, where coal is used as an alternative to oil for producing plastics, fertilizers, and other chemical products.

Павялічыць

Besides China, coal owes its resilience to major Asian countries. In India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, the IEA expects demand for coal to grow as these economies expand and electricity demand outpaces the construction of wind turbines and solar farms.

Developed economies, on the other hand, will reduce coal burning in 2027, as the EU, Japan, and South Korea are actively developing nuclear and renewable energy, and businesses in the US, despite Trump's efforts, also prefer more accessible and environmentally friendly fuels.

"The lack of stability in the Strait of Hormuz significantly complicates the prediction of global coal demand in 2027. If gas supplies return to pre-war levels and prices fall, coal demand could decrease by 0.4%. Otherwise, it will rise again," warns the IEA.

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