"The evolution is over." Shraibman criticized Tsikhanouskaya for unchanging narratives

In the new episode of "The Little Clock Ticks" project, Artsiom Shraibman, Yauheniya Suhakh, and Lev Lvovskiy discussed the fate of the main figures of the 2020 Belarusian protest and tried to understand what is happening with their political strategies today.

Speaking about Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Shraibman stated: "It seems to me that there is a certain trend towards 'bronzing,' where criticism is perceived more and more hostilely."

According to the analyst, the analysis of Tsikhanouskaya's interviews gives him grounds for such an opinion.

"Most of her interviews are really like warm baths. That is, she has very few tough interviews. Because of this, when they do occasionally arise, and she is asked uncomfortable questions, it is clear how unpleasant it is for her, how she gets indignant, how she immediately goes on the attack against the journalist," the analyst notes.

According to his observations, over years of political activity, Tsikhanouskaya has developed a number of comfortable positions that she regularly reiterates.

"There is no longer the idea that this might be some outdated message or that some ideas are not supported by Belarusians," Shraibman believes, and gives an example: "When she repeatedly states the idea that Belarusians are on Ukraine's side in this war. There is not a single sociological survey that would show this."

Shraibman admits that there were grounds for such an assessment in 2022. Back then, one could see how Belarusians, for example, massively transmitted information about the movements of Russian troops to "Belarusian Hajun." But, in his opinion, over four and a half years, enough new information has emerged that also needs to be taken into account.

"When you understand that, according to data from the same Ukrainian special services, more Belarusians are fighting for Russia than for Ukraine, when you understand that all surveys, with all their caveats, show (despite the fear factor) how few people hold a purely pro-Ukrainian position and how many people hold an 'a plague on both your houses' position."

Moreover, he emphasizes, the example with Ukraine is not unique.

"There is a certain set of what is called 'talking points' in English — theses that she repeats from speech to speech. And there is no longer any reflection around them. Positions do not change. I don't know what needs to happen," the analyst concludes.

At the same time, Shraibman believes that even if repression genuinely begins to soften in the future, Tsikhanouskaya and her team will not change their stance.

"Sviatlana will not acknowledge this. Sviatlana and her entourage will not acknowledge any softening of the situation in Belarus, should it occur. I am ready to assure you that they will keep saying until the very end, 'no, everything is as before, do not dare to enter into dialogue with this regime.' Even if these are real positive changes in the country. I somehow already see this as a fixed line they have chosen for themselves, which, I don't know what could shake," the analyst concludes.

From this, Shraibman also draws a more general conclusion about how Tsikhanouskaya has changed in recent years: "Many spoke about how Sviatlana is developing, how she is evolving, how she has grown. I think the evolution is over."

At the same time, Shraibman called Tsikhanouskaya and other leaders heroes who do not have to meet our expectations.

Lev Lvovskiy and Yauheniya Suhakh disagreed with Artsiom Shraibman. In Lvovskiy's opinion, Tsikhanouskaya "remains the representation of Belarus after 2020."

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