European intelligence agencies warn of possible escalation of Russian operations against NATO in coming months

The heads of three European intelligence agencies told The Guardian that Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months. The head of the Czech BIS, Michal Koudelka, suggested that Moscow could launch a limited invasion or another provocation on NATO territory within a few months. This could include a ground operation, writes "Agenstvo".

The Guardian interviewed Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Information Service; Normunds Mežviets, director general of the Latvian State Security Service; and Thomas Nilsson, head of the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service.

All three stated that Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months.

Nilsson called the recent drone incident at Leipzig airport, for which German authorities blamed Russia, a "game-changer."

Moscow is shifting from randomly selecting targets for sabotage, designed to sow panic, to specific targets related to supporting Ukraine, Mežviets said.

"We see them trying to attack railway infrastructure, infrastructure related to supporting Ukraine. Now we see a shift to targets in the defense industry," Mežviets said.

The Kremlin's plans may include a small invasion of NATO territory bordering Russia, Koudelka suggested.

"It could involve a limited invasion, false flag provocations, a large-scale influence campaign," Koudelka said. According to him, such a scenario could be realized within "months, not years," but he added that "many people are doing their best to prevent this from happening."

Signs of Moscow preparing more decisive actions in Europe are also acknowledged by the Latvian State Security Service. At the same time, according to Mežviets, Latvian intelligence "does not yet see" signs of an imminent attack. "The question remains open whether they have direct and concrete plans or if all this is just part of their general attempts to sow fear and uncertainty in Western society," Mežviets said.

Neither Mežviets nor Koudelka would disclose what intelligence they possessed.

They also declined to comment on whether CIA Director John Ratcliffe's trip to Moscow last month was intended to warn the Kremlin about the consequences of possible aggression against the Baltic states.

Current Russian tactics represent "escalation for de-escalation," Koudelka said. According to him, the Kremlin seeks to pressure the vulnerable points of Western societies to weaken their support for Ukraine. "They believe that if they raise the stakes high enough, European countries will decide to stop supporting Ukraine," Koudelka said.

The recent intensification of Russian sabotage activity has several goals: to weaken support for Ukraine, to create division within NATO, and to alarm the European population, Nilsson believes.

"I think Moscow would very much like NATO to endlessly debate Article 4 consultations, but ultimately take no action," he said.

Another consequence of the sabotage campaign is an increased workload for Western intelligence services, Koudelka says.

"Now every fire or every malfunction must be investigated by intelligence services as a potential terrorist attack, and for them [the Kremlin] this is a good outcome," Koudelka said.

The warnings from the heads of European intelligence agencies came three days after Prime Minister Donald Tusk's address to the Polish Sejm.

He reported that intelligence data indicates Russia is preparing "hybrid attacks" with drones and missiles against NATO countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland, in the coming months.

According to Tusk, Moscow might present such episodes as accidental, trying to convince alliance members that "Article 5 is more theoretical than practical." However, the prime minister emphasized that intelligence does not see signs of preparation for a Russian invasion.

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