Four Scenarios for Power Transition in Belarus: Experts Assessed the Probability of Each
The "pacted democratization" scenario is given less than 3%.
The Center for New Ideas presented the results of a new study that analyzed the probable scenarios, triggers, and key players of the future power change in Belarus.
29 experts were surveyed for the study.
15% of them consider a transition by 2030 likely, 60% by 2035, and 90% by 2040.
According to experts, the most probable start will be through a managed transfer of power from above (72%).
The study noted that:
- the main trigger for transition is the health condition of Alyaksandr Lukashenka (79%), as well as instability in Russia (38%);
- real power in the initial stage will most likely be gained by actors from within the system – current officials (48%), Lukashenka's family (21%), or security forces (17%);
- Belarusian society and elites are currently demonstrating passivity: 69% of experts expect elites to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and 55% believe that society will accept the status quo.
The study shows that Russia will be the main external factor and will support any geopolitically acceptable candidate (66%). The West, in turn, has a high demand for change but currently does not demonstrate readiness to actively manage the process.
Experts identify four main scenarios for developments:
- Authoritarian Succession (32%) — a basic scenario for changing the top official without deep democratization.
- Geopolitical Hybrid (31.6%) — maneuvering by part of the elites between Moscow and the West.
- Window for Democratization (2.4%) — the best, but highly unlikely, scenario requiring the weakening of Russia and the readiness of reformers.
- Freezing or Loss of Subjectivity (34%) — the worst scenario with deepening Russian control.
You can find more details about the interactive model here.
The study was prepared by Anton Radniankou, Ryhor Astapenia, and Dzmitry Kruk.
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Пазытыўны сцэнар першы " ідзе" ВВПу
Нэгатаўны ідзе першы АГЛ цьфу цьфу
Перамір'е затуханне калапс кіравання на Рф ...таксама на карысць і Шанец на Змены ..
Ўсе іньшае паліталагічныя калькі ..
Як раней ні будзе і павернення таксама
Закалебалі са сваім галоўным трыгерам. Хартыя ўжо гадоў 20 піша, што "Лукашэнка вось-вось памрэ".
Памрэ гадоў праз 20, і эксперт напіша "я жэ гаварыў - памрэ!"