Attack on the Moscow Refinery — How Did "Russia's Best Air Defense" Miss a Strike on the Capital?

Moscow, as many bloggers and experts claim, is one of the most protected places in Russia. A large number of air defense systems have been concentrated there. Therefore, the strike that reached its target — an oil refinery — in such a well-protected area, caused outrage among some pro-Russian bloggers. Channels with a large number of subscribers either did not criticize the air defense's work or deleted their posts, but in smaller ones, there was plenty of criticism, writes the BBC.

"Yesterday and today, drones again reached Moscow and the Moscow region. Along with them, the main question returned: where is the promised impenetrable air defense system of the capital of a state that has been involved in the largest military conflict in Europe for the fifth year?" writes the "Kremlin Matryoshka" channel.

Assessing the quality of Moscow's air defense is not easy. The exact number of drones launched at Moscow is unknown. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated on Thursday morning that 992 drones and four cruise missiles were shot down over Russian territory, including annexed Crimea, within 24 hours.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said that, according to data as of 9:40 AM on June 18, 194 drones were shot down on approach to the city.

"Indeed, drone attacks continue. Appropriate measures are being taken to eliminate the consequences. Air defense systems show high performance, despite everything," commented Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov on the consequences of the attack.

The exact number of drones that reached their target is also unknown. It is not possible to judge this by the plumes of smoke rising over Moscow, as several drones could have hit the same object.

Павялічыць

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that "at least five points of burning" were formed as a result of the attack on the refinery: "According to preliminary geolocation, the combined oil processing unit, secondary processing units, and the tank farm are burning."

Footage of the attack, taken by eyewitnesses, shows drones falling and exploding on the ground after being hit by missiles. Finally, the version that the tank with the lid that flew into the sky could have been blown up by an air defense missile that hit it by mistake is gaining popularity among commentators.

Moscow's Air Defense

In comments and news reports about the attack, it is most often stated that the Kapotnya refinery was hit by "several" drones. This word does not indicate an exact number, but in colloquial language, it is often used to denote one to ten.

And if Moscow's air defense indeed shot down 192 drones, and even 10 broke through to the target, then this air defense effectiveness indicator can indeed be considered high. Ukrainian air defense, according to Ukrainian military estimates, intercepts about 90% of targets, and for long-range drones, this figure reaches 92%. This is considered a good result. Such a result can be achieved, for example, by a high concentration of air defense assets, which is present in Moscow and the Moscow region.

Moscow has traditionally been considered the most protected place from air attacks. This applied to strikes by intercontinental ballistic missiles (to the extent they can be defended against at all), cruise missiles, and conventional combat aircraft.

However, drones are essentially light aircraft that fly slowly at a low altitude of tens of meters and are not very visible on radar. It is not easy to spot them, nor to shoot them down: they are in the air defense system's action zone for a short time. Therefore, it is very important to spot the drone in time, track its flight direction, and warn interception assets that it will soon appear in their area of operation.

During the war with Ukraine, short-range air defense missile systems — such as "Tor" or "Pantsir" — were positioned around Moscow. Additionally, drones are combated with small arms and man-portable anti-aircraft systems. Besides these, drones can also be fought with aviation — attack and conventional multi-purpose helicopters are well-suited for this. But it is dangerous to use them near ground-based systems, as there is a high probability of friendly fire.

However, no matter how saturated the air defense is, the number of aerial vehicles it can intercept is limited. It cannot exceed the number of missiles in anti-aircraft installations. Therefore, even theoretically, one can calculate the number of drones that will overcome the air defense. In practice, judging by the footage taken during the attack on Kapotnya, it is visible that quite a few missiles launched at drones miss, increasing the probability of a breakthrough.

Tactics

The massive use of military equipment is the basis of strike tactics. But Ukraine expends significant effort not only on the production of attack drones but also on the preparation of the strikes themselves.

Politico published a lengthy article on June 19, the day after the attack on Kapotnya, detailing the preparation of drone raids on Russia.

It states that Ukrainian military personnel strive to use various means in each raid — long-range kamikaze drones, decoy drones, and missile-type UAVs, which are, in essence, cruise missiles.

Russians also use such tactics, often launching cruise and ballistic missiles along with "Shaheds" — a diverse composition of means of destruction is difficult to intercept.

The AFU uses a special control system "Pryzma" for preparing and conducting attacks, which includes artificial intelligence, states the Politico material. It collects and analyzes operational data, after which another strike is planned with its help.

"We know how they move their air defense systems and electronic warfare assets every day and every hour. Every night we use different flight routes. We never repeat them," the publication quotes a Ukrainian officer with the call sign "Vector" as saying.

"People's Air Defense"

One of the Russian military bloggers — "reporter Filatov" — wrote an angry post after the attack, in which he criticized the procurement system of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

"Everything that flew over Moscow was 'shit and sticks,' which have been known for about 2 years. These 'shit and sticks' waste the best air defense missiles in the world, costing millions, deplete air defense, and as a result, there's the video above. For 3 years, everyone in the know has been talking about the need to develop 'small air defense' from 'shit and sticks,' i.e., what is created in garages," his publication states.

In Russia, many military bloggers criticize the cumbersome and inflexible procurement system of the Ministry of Defense, which, according to them, reacts too slowly to new threats and rapidly changing forms of warfare.

The Russian leadership is trying to show flexibility, creating new forms of air defense for itself — organizing mobile fire groups, and at the end of May, the Ministry of Defense attempted to regulate the mechanism for private enterprises to purchase air defense systems.

Footage of the attack on Kapotnya showed and heard the work of shooters: drones flew towards the target under a barrage of rifle and machine-gun fire. In one shot, a downed drone might have been hit by small arms fire from the ground.

But even if the air defense work becomes even more effective, in the case of Moscow, it will not solve the problem that drones fly over dense urban areas in the final kilometers to their target.

If a drone is shot down and does not explode in the air, it falls to the ground, where it can hit a residential building or, for example, a shopping center, as happened on June 18. Then two drones fell on the "Sadovod" market and the "Belaya Dacha" shopping center.

As soon as a drone reaches a large city, it has already completed its combat mission — even if it is shot down,

it will most likely be filmed on a phone and posted online. And at the very least, the psychological effect of the attack will be achieved.

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