Belarus and Russia agreed on 107 out of 110 points of the rapprochement plan for the next three years. But the most important one is pending

What could not be agreed upon

The main conflict is around energy markets. The Belarusian side insists on the wording "creation of a unified market for gas, electricity, oil, and petroleum products."

They propose to specify the following:

• equal conditions for the activities of Belarusian and Russian economic entities;
• uniform rules for access to energy infrastructure;
• agreed principles for forming tariffs for services of natural monopolies in the energy sector.

The Russian side proposed, instead of all this, a five-word phrase: "development of cooperation in the oil and gas sector" — vague and without specific obligations. The Ministry of Energy of Belarus and the Belneftekhim concern did not support this idea.

"All signed obligations remain a declaration"

Representatives of the Ministry of Economy write in a closed document that such brevity indicates "insufficient interest of the Russian side in developing a compromise wording."

Further, the authors cite the position of the Belneftekhim concern. It already had "extensive experience in coordinating various documents with the Russian side" and "facts of non-fulfillment of agreements on oil supplies."

"We can state that all signed obligations on creating an oil and petroleum products market remain a declaration," write representatives of Belneftekhim. "Our efforts to force the Russian side to fulfill its international obligations, namely to balance the market and unify rules for access to oil transportation systems, are interpreted as unwillingness to find compromise solutions and provoke constant disagreements due to the high sensitivity of this sector for the Russian Federation."

Belneftekhim representatives believe that the main obstacle to forming a single market is that the Russian side is simply not interested in creating conditions for a "synergistic effect for both sides" — neither now nor in the future.

According to the document, during negotiations on the "Main Directions," the Russian Ministry of Energy even failed to ensure "the level of managerial staff" — meaning it sent representatives who hold not the highest positions.

The authors concluded that the oil and gas issue "requires solutions at a higher level" and proposed seeking negotiations at the level of heads of departments. For this, they wanted to appeal to Alexei Overchuk, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia.

How they plan to get closer

Besides the energy dispute, the 110 points of the "Main Directions" include a long list of tasks of varying degrees of specificity.

In nuclear energy, the countries agreed on the construction of the third power unit of the Belarusian NPP — this point has already been fully agreed with Rosatom, as have issues of spent nuclear fuel management.

In the defense sector, they plan to conclude an agreement in 2027 on "logistical and medical support for military contingents" of the two countries. This could concern, for example, the supply and medical support of troops when they are on each other's territory — but the details are not disclosed in the document.

In industry, much is said about import substitution — they plan to jointly produce components previously purchased in the West: ABS and EBS systems for brakes, cardan shafts, numerically controlled machine tools. Also planned are "the creation of robotic equipment for autonomous technological complexes" and "the creation of aircraft production" (among the responsible parties is the State Military-Industrial Committee of Belarus).

In the financial sector, they want to launch cross-border QR code payments for citizens of Belarus and Russia. Many points of the document are quite general: various departments propose "development of cooperation," "exchange of experience," "harmonization of approaches," and "interaction on issues of improvement."

The two remaining contentious points appear less acute. One concerns the integration of digital information systems to simplify trade, the other — the elimination of double taxation for self-employed citizens of the two countries. For both, the Belarusian side awaits a response from Russia.

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