Klaskouski: Lukashenka is ready for human trafficking, but not for liberalization

"I am very critical of official Minsk's policy, but this is a case where I positively assessed this statement. I remember many years ago, when I came to NATO headquarters, the first person I met there was a lieutenant colonel of the Belarusian army, who was then a permanent representative. And if such times returned, it would be a plus for both the West and Belarus," Aliaksandr Klaskouski commented on Belsat.

He believes that Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou acts as Aliaksandr Lukashenka tells him, and sends a signal that Belarus should not be "put on the same level as Russia, we do not want to attack anyone." The analyst emphasized that "to a certain extent, the ball is in the other court."

As an example of possible agreements and "certain signals," Aliaksandr Klaskouski names the "Polish track," in which "a number of steps from both sides increased some degree of trust," "and Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski speaks of a slight thaw in relations with Belarus."

"No miracles are to be expected here, but last year, when the 'West-2025' maneuvers were held, the Poles expressed their concerns that it could be a cover for an attack, and Lukashenka nevertheless then moved these maneuvers deeper into Belarusian territory. And last year, when a swarm of Russian drones flew towards Poland, Belarusian air defense shot down some of them, and Minsk also sent a warning to Warsaw about this danger," the analyst noted.

Klaskouski called Lukashenka's strong dependence on Russia a fundamental point: "He can demonstrate some of his inclinations towards confidence-building measures, but if Putin wants to carry out some aggressive actions, it will be difficult for Lukashenka to get out of it."

He also spoke about Russia's role in the context of sanctions lifting:

"On the one hand, it might be beneficial for Russia if sanctions against Belarus were eased, so that it could be some kind of hub, so that through this hole, roughly speaking, some technologies, dual-use goods, etc., would go to Russia. But at the same time, Russia still has an imperial mentality, and it fears that Lukashenka will escape from it (although he won't escape anywhere, in my opinion), but they still keep this Belarusian foothold in sight and are afraid to lose it. This is an existential phobia for the Kremlin."

However, Aliaksandr Lukashenka himself is clearly not ready for greater changes than human trafficking to lift economic sanctions. "There is no talk of liberalization," the expert believes.

"He is ready for trade, but not for liberalization. And this very phraseology of the Belarusian Foreign Minister about costs, which they don't like, but which they must bear. This means that there is no talk of any liberalization here, that they would continue to keep these people behind bars, but since such a binge has started, cut the last cucumber. In this case, they are already ready to release these 'enemies'," Klaskouski explained.

Among the possible scenarios for the development of events, according to him, "one can talk about some kind of encryption of repressions":

"Maybe there will be fewer high-profile political imprisonments for long terms, maybe they will give more 'home chemistries' (house arrest-like measures), use administrative arrests, large fines — somehow mask this repressive policy. But my opinion is that, by and large, the repressive essence under Lukashenka will not change."

Aliaksandr Klaskouski explains this by the "trauma of 2020."

"Unfortunately, the psychological trauma does not give Lukashenka peace. Although on the one hand he repeatedly calls to turn the page, on the other hand, we see that he does not forget about those events, about that explosion of popular anger, protest, about the attempt at a peaceful revolution. Now he will no longer risk any serious concessions, even within the framework of some possible dialogue with Europe. Certain cosmetic steps may be taken, but the essence will not change," the expert emphasized.

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