What stands behind the Kremlin's new threats to "systematically strike Kyiv" and to whom are they directed?

The Kremlin named the attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a college in occupied Starobilsk (Luhansk region) as the reason for the escalation, where, according to Kyiv, a military special unit for unmanned technologies of the Russian Federation "Rubicon" was located.

Moscow insists that the object was exclusively civilian and used the tragedy to justify the attack on Kyiv on the night of May 24, which Russian media called "retaliatory strikes."

According to Kyiv authorities, this shelling was the most intense since the start of the full-scale invasion in terms of the number of damaged locations.

After this, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the military was moving to "consistent and systematic attacks on Ukrainian military industrial enterprises in Kyiv," and also called on foreign diplomats to immediately leave the city.

Experts link the intensification of threats with the fact that the situation on the battlefield is changing not in Russia's favor. According to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the advance of Russian troops has sharply slowed down, they are losing more soldiers for smaller areas of territory, while Ukraine is successfully counterattacking and destroying Russian air defense.

Moreover, Ukrainian drone strikes have paralyzed the work of almost all major oil refineries in central Russia.

As a result, Moscow is forced to raise the stakes.

Economist magazine correspondent Oliver Carroll described the Kremlin's actions as follows:

"a madman's game" designed to force the opponent to retreat.

A warning not to Kyiv, but to Washington?

The threats were voiced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, not the Ministry of Defense, which emphasizes their political nature. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov directly called the head of the US Department of State, Marc Rubio. As reported by Russian authorities, Lavrov called back Rubio to convey that Russian military personnel are commencing "systematic attacks on facilities located in Kyiv that are used for the needs of the Armed Forces, and on decision-making centers."

This statement came after Marc Rubio expressed pessimism about peace talks, stating that the US "does not want to participate in an endless cycle of meetings that lead nowhere."

This signaled that the Donald Trump administration was changing its previous rhetoric of a quick end to the war, and the diplomatic process had reached an impasse.

To make the blackmail more convincing, Russia uses the nuclear component: recently, large-scale exercises of strategic nuclear forces were conducted jointly with Belarus, the "Sarmat" intercontinental missile was tested, and the Kyiv region was hit by an "Oreshnik" ballistic missile (designed for nuclear warheads, but launched with mock warheads).

Analysts' conclusions: Moscow fell into its own trap

Western experts warn: the traditional Russian military doctrine of "escalation for de-escalation" (where the Kremlin deliberately goes for extreme escalation and nuclear blackmail to intimidate the opponent and force them to retreat) has completely collapsed in modern conditions and has a destructive effect for Moscow itself.

Firstly, Ukraine and its European allies have already grown accustomed to the Kremlin's constant threats and have stopped fearing its "red lines" — in response to another nuclear bluff, Kyiv does not cease hostilities, but on the contrary, increases painful drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.

Secondly, since Ukraine now receives primary military aid from Europe, Washington has lost the ability to pressure Kyiv and force it to make concessions.

As a result, the Kremlin has fallen into an escalation trap: each new round of Russian blackmail and threats no longer calms the situation or brings negotiations closer, but only provokes another spiral of even harsher and more decisive military response from Ukraine and Europe.

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