Naumchyk reflected on how history would have unfolded if Kebich had won in 1994
Last year, at the "Pradmova" intellectual book festival in Prague, I was asked: what if not Lukashenka, but Kebich had won in 1994 – would it have been better? Questions of this kind require thorough answers. But if briefly – yes, better, writes journalist and "Independence Deputy" Siarhei Naumchyk on Facebook.
Even Kebich's corrupt entourage was far less dangerous for Independence and democracy than the riff-raff of young and not-so-young "wolves" who came with Lukashenka.
Most likely, Kebich would have continued what he started in 1993 with Belarus's accession to the CSTO and the signing of questionable agreements with Moscow. But the national revival would not have been violently stopped; it would have continued, albeit not in comfortable conditions (I remind you that in 1993, 80% of first-graders went to Belarusian classes not because Kebich particularly wanted it, but because we demanded the implementation of the Law on Languages. Lukashenka, however, started by closing Belarusian schools).
Kebich definitely would not have deprived the Belarusian language of its status as the sole state language, nor would he have abolished "Pahonia" and the white-red-white flag as state symbols; it is absolutely out of the question that he would have ordered the beating of BPF deputies in the parliament hall.
There would not have been great democracy, but in 1995, the BPF would definitely have had a faction in the Supreme Council (at least 20-30 deputies, as in the Supreme Council-12). There would have been no vilification of Vasil Bykau on BT and, as a result, his de facto emigration. There would have been no murders of Zakharanka, Hanchar, and Krasouski; of this I have no doubt (I am speaking about one 5-year presidential term (1994-1999) – Zavadsky was killed in 2000).
I think we would have had 5 years for national development (with great efforts from our side, of course).
At the same time, I by no means absolve Kebich of blame for what happened in 1994 (not responsibility – every politician or public figure, and even an ordinary voter, bears responsibility to one degree or another, but blame is borne by those who have power).
Kebich would hardly have run for a second term. But who would have won in 1999, and what would have happened after – I wouldn't venture to predict.
Comments
- Кебич отмечал, что «русский мир» не нужно откуда-то извне привносить в Беларусь или бояться его, так как он «давно в наших мыслях, в наших душах и в нашем образе жизни»
- Значительная часть работы посвящена критике разрушения единого советского пространства
С Кебичем уже б никто и не помнил толком, что была такая страна Беларусь. Лет 25 точно. Сказки эти веселят все больше с каждым разом. Баснописцы.