Ukraine created four problems for Putin at once

Photo: Sefa Karacan / Anadolu via Getty Images

Stalemate on the front

Despite local shifts, there have been no strategic changes on the front since 2023. At the same time, both sides are constantly attacking supply routes, ammunition trucks, fuel transports, railway hubs, and enemy road connections.

Historian-Slavist, Professor Jan C. Behrends told Bild: "A multi-kilometer wide zone has formed in the center of the front — a no-man's land controlled by drones. Here, Ukraine is fully succeeding and inflicting heavy losses on the Russian army."

The war is increasingly defined by drones, missiles, and air defense systems. Professor of International Relations Thomas Jäger (University of Cologne) summarizes: "The war of attrition continues, and Russia is not finding ways to win it militarily."

Disruptions in military logistics

Ukraine is attacking oil refineries, fuel tanks, and railway infrastructure in the Russian rear. "The damage to the economy is enormous – both in terms of [oil] exports and in terms of domestic supply and front-line supply. A dramatic situation has developed in occupied Crimea, where gasoline is no longer issued to private individuals," says Behrends.

Crimea's supply routes have come under attack. Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, sees clear consequences: "Over the past two weeks, it has become clear that the destruction of oil processing and storage infrastructure has been more effective than anticipated. Now all Russian economic and social life is under pressure."

Inability to defend Crimea becomes a political burden

Ukraine regularly attacks military infrastructure and supply routes in Crimea. Military expert Thomas Jäger says: "Crimea is the most important symbol of Putin's imperialist policy. [...] And the situation is changing as occupied Crimea is being isolated from Russia."

The attacks complicate the supply of Russian troops. Behrends calls the potential loss of Crimea for Putin "a massive double blow: symbolic, because propaganda has always emphasized Crimea's close connection with Russia, and strategic, because the peninsula serves as Putin's outpost in the Black Sea."

Russian society increasingly feels the consequences of the war

Both attacks on Crimea and attacks on targets within Russia make the consequences of the war obvious to many Russians. Umland says: "For a significant part of the Russian population, the war is becoming clearly visible for the first time, and its, at least economic, consequences are becoming clearly tangible."

"The war has transformed from some kind of 'computer game' into an everyday reality for millions of Russians." Behrends also emphasizes the effect of the attacks: "The image of burning Moscow cannot be ignored; Ukraine's tactics are working."

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