Science and technology 5 5

Nashaniva.com

03.06.2026 / 07:00

Бел Łac Рус

No Apocalypse? Scientists Re-evaluate the Gloomiest Climate Warming Scenario

The scientific community has officially abandoned the use of the most extreme global warming scenario, which served as the basis for thousands of climate studies over the last decade. Why this happened and what the most probable scenario is, reports The New York Times.

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Comments5

Суродзіч

03.06.2026

Гаданне на кававай гушчы працягваецца. А як жа прагноз тых жа самых кліматолагаў, што Гальфстрым цалкам спыніцца да 2100 г., і Еўропа пагрузіцца ў новы ледавіковы перыяд? У той час як уся астатняя Зямля будзе працягваць разагравацца? Гучыць як трызня, а значыць гэта і ёсць трызня.
.

03.06.2026

У гэтых графіках з рознымі сцэнарыямі, распрацаванымі ў пачатку 2010-х, не хапае лініі бягучага становішча.
А такое параўнанне пастаянна робяць. Малюнкам пракаментаваць не магу, скажу словамі: актуальная лінія на 2026 г. ідзе паміж чырвонай RCP8.5 і блакітнай RCP4.5. (RCP4.5 часова перавышае шэры RCP6.0).
То-бок, самы найгоршы сцэнарый не адбываецца зараз, адбываецца сярэдняе паміж горшым і найгоршым.

Чаму так: найгоршы арыентаваўся на спажыванне вугалю, а рэальна меры пераходу на зялёную энергетыку далі свой вынік.

Сутнасць усіх сцэнарыяў, нават найлепшага ў тым, што калі чалавецтва проста прыпыніцца награваць атмасферу, тэмпература паветра да 2100 года ўсё роўна вырасце, бо гэты рост - моцны інерцыйны працэс.

Рабіць доўгатэрміновыя кліматычныя мадэлі - складаная праца з многімі невядомымі пераменнымі. Дакладна вядомыя толькі абмежаванні, як гэтае пра рост у любым выпадку. Прагназавалі не адзіны сцэнарый, а іх калідор, дзе канкрэтныя назвы - лініі розных траекторый унутры калідора.

Напрыклад, найнавейшы перыяд пацяплення 2019-2025 фактычна даў нечаканыя вельмі высокія тэмпы змен (пра гэта пастаянна пісалі кліматолагі). Пытанне ў тым, гэта лакальны трэнд або ўжо пастаянны і тэмпы захаваюцца далей. Калі захаваюцца, то прыйдзецца пераглядаць і вось гэтую новую прапанову аб сцэнарыях, пра якую артыкул.

Пра "адмену RCP8.5" у апошні час шмат кажуць, бо ў траўні Трамп напісаў пост, у якім палітызаваў сучасны перагляд сцэнарыяў, аблаяў ўвесь "Climate Activism"/"Alarmism" і "Dumocrats".
Адсюль і тлумачэнні ў розных СМІ.
Чаму 25?

03.06.2026

Indrid Cold,
Да 2100 года памрэ амаль 100% сёнешняга чалавецтва.
Нічога, бабы новых народзяць.

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