According to data from analytical company Vortexa, the medium-range tanker MINERVA ZEN departed from St. Petersburg on September 22 with a cargo of approximately 280,000 barrels of diesel fuel and gasoil. Since then, the vessel's destination has not been disclosed.
Marine analytics company Windward AI is tracking a tanker that is likely carrying the first shipment of Russian diesel to the US East Coast. The vessel is expected to arrive there in approximately 48-72 hours.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst and expert in opaque shipping, the "shadow fleet," and global trade, noted that events are unfolding very quickly. Less than 24 hours earlier, the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License No. 135, which temporarily authorizes the sale and import of Russian diesel fuel and gasoil until April 2027.
However, the volume of Russian diesel and gasoil available for purchase is limited. According to analytical estimates, it will likely only be possible to import a few batches of fuel into the US at this time. Such supplies are unlikely to eliminate the global deficit or significantly affect domestic prices in the United States.
According to Vortexa data, Russian exports of diesel fuel and gasoil decreased to 190,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. For comparison, this figure was 690,000 barrels in the second quarter and 850,000 in the first.
In July, Russia extended its ban on gasoline and diesel fuel exports, attempting to overcome a domestic shortage that arose after attacks on Russian oil refineries in 2026. According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on October 4, 51% of Russia's oil refining capacities were not operational.
The fuel deficit was so significant that in the third quarter, Russia itself imported diesel fuel, gasoil, and gasoline. The last such delivery was recorded on October 7: 150,000 barrels of diesel arrived at the Russian port of Vysotsk on the medium-range tanker Soyana, which sails under the Russian flag and is subject to Western sanctions. This is according to Vortexa data.
Wiese Bockmann also noted that the six-month validity of the license may indicate a lack of expectation for a quick resumption of free shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
It is currently difficult to say whether the tanker's final destination was quickly changed after an agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, or if an agreement between the American president and the Russian leader could have been reached much earlier, back in September, and only now publicly announced.
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