Former Belarusian diplomat named four main components of progress. The EU lags behind the US and China in three of them
"If it's a world-changing technology and you can't do anything with it, then the world will be changed without you," says Pavel Slinkin, a former Belarusian diplomat and Harvard University graduate.
Pavel Slinkin. Screenshot from video: radio-svaboda / YouTube
In an interview with the "Kanapa" project on "Radio Svaboda", Pavel Slinkin suggests looking at how the field of artificial intelligence is structured, through the ancient myth of three elephants and a turtle.
"When people used to think about how our world is built, they imagined that there's a turtle, three elephants, and the earth rests on the backs of these elephants. If we imagine the progress of artificial intelligence in such an image, then the three elephants will be access to investments, i.e., capital.
The second elephant will be computing power plus electricity. And the third elephant will be chips. And all of this stands on the most important thing – the talent of the people who can develop this technology."
What about money?
According to Slinkin, in 2025, private investments in artificial intelligence in the US amounted to about 286 billion dollars. In Europe, this figure was approximately 14 times less – about 21 billion. Chinese investments are harder to estimate, as the state plays a significant role there, but according to his assessment, they could be around 80-100 billion dollars.
At the same time, as Slinkin argues, Europe has a weak venture capital market:
"There are simply no venture companies in Europe, for example, that have 5 billion dollars they can use. In the US, there are more than 50 such companies. So, this 'elephant' of Europe is quite weak. There is simply no money available for startups, for developing these technologies."
European gigafactories versus American IT giants
According to Slinkin, Europe has faced problems with access to sufficient energy resources. He links this both to the consequences of sanctions imposed on Russian energy resources and to the closure of some nuclear power plants as part of the "green" policy.
Meanwhile, American companies are significantly faster at increasing computing power, as they face fewer regulatory restrictions. Slinkin says that even now, the computing resources of Google alone exceed the combined capabilities of all of Europe.
In response, the EU is implementing a program to create five large data processing centers (gigafactories), but their capacities will not allow for closing the gap with the US.
"Because Google, Meta, Amazon are building their data centers, which are much more powerful and are being built much faster. So, currently, Europe lags behind the Americans in computer power by approximately 10 times. By 2028, this gap will be 50 times, and by 2030, it will be 200 times," argues the former diplomat.
The third problem is chip production. According to Slinkin, while in 1990 Europe controlled about 44% of the global chip market, its share has now shrunk to 8-10%. He notes that, in fact, Europe does not produce modern chips necessary for the development of artificial intelligence.
The only advantage – talent
Slinkin names human capital as Europe's only relative advantage. In his opinion, the strictness of American immigration policy under the Donald Trump administration led to significantly fewer researchers in the field of artificial intelligence moving to the US. This gives Europe a chance to retain its own specialists. He specifically highlights Switzerland's strong engineering and technological school.
Artificial intelligence will become a technology that will fundamentally change the world.
"And if it's a world-changing technology, and you can't do anything with it because it's not powerful enough for you, then it means that the world will be changed without you, and you will only be left to adapt to how others do it," Slinkin argues.
As a historical analogy, he cites the era of the Great Geographical Discoveries. Europe once dominated because it learned to build ships capable of crossing oceans, which allowed it to expand its influence and colonize other lands. Later, according to him, computers and the internet played a similar role, becoming the foundation for modern technological corporations.
"AI is just one episode. And if you lose in it, it means that the future will belong to someone else," the expert warns.
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Comments
А я эксперты нагадаю што ў Еўропе мабільная сувязь у 10 разоў ранейшая чым у штатах. А чаму? Бо штаты былі піянерамі і пабудавалі столькі абсталявання якое трэба абслугоўваць 50-60 гадоў каб пакрыць кошты Р&Д.
Тое ж самае і з ШІ - мы пачакаем пакуль будзе посьпех і пабудуем тое што трэба, без вялікіх коштаў на распрацоўку. Хай амерыканскія інвестары губляюць свае грошы на Р&Д ;)