Farage's rise awakened Celtic nations. English nationalism threatens to dismantle the United Kingdom

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Photo: Jordan Pettitt / PA Images via Getty Images

As reported by The Guardian, political leaders of the Celtic nations — Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales — have begun to seriously consider what recently seemed unthinkable: the breakup of the United Kingdom. The reason for the alarm is the rapid rise in popularity of the Reform UK party and its controversial leader Nigel Farage. Both unionists, who seek to preserve the union, and nationalists, who wish to dismantle it, are preparing for constitutional chaos should Farage become Prime Minister or at least the leader of the official opposition.

The situation is causing particular concern in Ireland. Irish Justice Minister Jim O'Callaghan stated at a conference in Belfast that Dublin must begin preparing for reunification now, without waiting for English nationalism to dictate its agenda.

"The future may not follow a predictable path of discussions and harmony," he warned.

Politicians fear that Farage might use the UK's annual subvention to Northern Ireland, estimated to be in the range of £6 to £20 billion, as a populist slogan — similar to the notorious lie about £350 million per week for the EU during the Brexit campaign.

Even representatives of the Sinn Féin party, which is the main proponent of a unity referendum, fear chaos. Former Sinn Féin Finance Minister for Northern Ireland Conor Murphy suggests that Farage might simply "dump" the region.

"He might say: 'We'll save this money by letting the Irish go. Good luck to you and goodbye.' He could do that. It's in the Trump style. It's unpredictable." Therefore, Sinn Féin urges Dublin to negotiate the rules for holding a referendum with London now, "while there's still someone sensible in Whitehall."

"ICE-like squads on the streets of Britain"

The fears of the Celtic nations are not limited to economics alone. They fear a deep cultural and civilizational rupture with England under Farage's leadership.

Former First Minister of Wales Mark Drakeford painted a grim picture of the future: "It is entirely possible that in just a few years, people on the island of Ireland will be looking across the Irish Sea at a country where ICE-like squads are rounding people up on the streets."

With this, he drew a parallel with the harsh methods of the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Such a scenario would inevitably alienate Scotland and Northern Ireland, leaving Wales as a "progressive pimple" on the body of the rest of the United Kingdom.

The basis for such forecasts are Farage's own statements about the UK's intention to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) to stop the flow of migrants in boats. This step could have catastrophic consequences, as the Belfast Agreement (Good Friday Agreement), which ensures peace in Northern Ireland, is based on the ECHR.

A voluntary union that can be left

Mark Drakeford, who has always advocated for preserving the union, recalled a fundamental principle: "The United Kingdom is a voluntary union of four nations. And in any voluntary union, there must be a choice to stay, and there must be a choice to leave."

Precisely this choice may become inevitable if English nationalism, embodied by Farage, ceases to consider the interests of other members of the union. Former Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar believes that a Reform UK-led government could become an "accelerator" for a referendum on Northern Ireland's status.

The irony of the situation is that Brexit, which Farage promoted, was a lesson in "how not to implement constitutional changes." However, instead of learning from it, British politics has gone down the path of further radicalization. The phenomenon of Farage has ceased to be marginal and has turned into a permanent factor.

The Celtic nations no longer wish to be "passengers" on a political train speeding in an unknown direction.

As a result, the man who has spent his entire political life fighting for "taking back control" and "independence" for Britain may become the catalyst for its dissolution. Instead of a renewed empire, he may be left with only England, from which its historical neighbors have separated. And this will be the logical conclusion of an era begun by Brexit — an era when the struggle for sovereignty leads to the loss of territories.

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