Despite frantic financial bonuses for recruits, Russia finds it increasingly difficult to replenish its military losses in Ukraine. In the fifth year of the war, a demographic crisis and the militarization of the economy have led to the country simply lacking people, both on the front and in factories. If the trend continues, Putin will soon face a choice: either launch a second wave of unpopular mobilization or abandon the original goals of the war.
Mobilized Russians. Photo: AP
What would you do with an $80,000 bonus or debt write-off of up to $140,000? These are the questions currently being posed to Russian men on billboards and social media, offering them this money to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense and go to fight in Ukraine. These amounts are four times the average annual salary in the country, but even they are beginning to lose their appeal.
As reported by CNN with reference to experts, in the first quarter of this year, recruitment to the Russian army decreased by 20% compared to the same period in 2025.
"Rubles don't fight," notes Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). "This is the first war in Russia's history where the state actually pays citizens to go to war, rather than simply forcing them. This creates enormous economic pressure and staffing problems."
Labor Crisis and Production Limits
The war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, is draining the country of working-age men. According to Western intelligence estimates, almost 500,000 Russian military personnel have died since the start of the conflict, and hundreds of thousands more have left the country to escape conscription. This has led to the most severe labor shortage in Russia's history.
The defense industry is operating at its limits. Factories have switched to a 24/7 regime, but increasing weapons production further is physically impossible precisely due to the lack of manpower.
"The government can build a new factory or find financing, but the state is not capable of dictating the birth rate," emphasizes Gould-Davies.
The shortage of personnel contributes to salary growth in the civilian sector, which in turn fuels inflation. Food prices have risen by more than 18% compared to January 2024, and recent increases in taxes and utility payments only exacerbate the situation.
Ukraine's Technological Advantage and Russia's Losses
Against the backdrop of Russia's personnel problems, Ukraine is betting on innovation. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian forces are demonstrating a significant technological advantage, especially in the use of tactical drones and robots.
In the first three months of 2026 alone, Ukraine conducted over 22,000 unmanned ground missions. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi claims that in May, Ukrainian drone operators killed or wounded more Russian soldiers than Russia managed to mobilize in the same period. Western estimates also indicate a high level of Russian army losses – about 30-35 thousand people monthly.
The Russian army is becoming less professional, as former prisoners and poorly trained recruits continue to be sent to the front lines. Attempts to attract technical university students to operate drones failed after it became known that the Russian Ministry of Defense periodically threw drone operators into regular infantry assaults, which undermined confidence in such contracts.
A Difficult Choice for the Kremlin
To compensate for the shortage of recruits, Russia has already used tens of thousands of prisoners, brought several waves of North Korean servicemen to the front, and started recruiting migrant workers. However, these measures are proving insufficient.
Experts agree that the Kremlin will soon face a fundamental choice: either radically increase pressure on the economy and society (through a new wave of forced mobilization and a ban on leaving the country), or scale down its military objectives.
Although some analysts believe that the Russian economy can still withstand this burden for some time by attracting foreign labor from India, North Korea, and Africa, the fiscal burden on the budget is becoming increasingly palpable. Currently, military and recruitment expenditures are estimated at tens of billions of dollars annually, accounting for almost 10% of the entire federal budget.
"These trends could weaken support for the war and increase social discontent. However, the Kremlin traditionally tends to double down rather than retreat," warns Maria Snegovaya, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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