Russia may strike a military target in Europe to divide Ukraine's allies — Bild expert
«Let's say several cruise missiles hit a suspected weapons depot in Poland, and twelve people die».
Vladimir Putin with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, photo Contributor / Getty Images
Russian foreign policy expert Hanna Notte stated in a podcast with Bild editor-in-chief Paul Ronzheimer that Vladimir Putin cannot force Ukraine to capitulate, and therefore there is a risk that he will escalate against Europe. According to her, since Ukrainians are constantly attacking the Russian rear, military logic will likely lead the Kremlin to the idea of attacking Ukraine's strategic rear — the EU.
However, the expert does not expect a large-scale attack on NATO or the opening of a new front in Europe. Rather, it could be an attack on a single target in a NATO state — to provoke a difficult discussion within the alliance, sow fear, and «break the consensus on long-term support for Ukraine».
Notte describes a possible scenario: «Let's say several cruise missiles hit a suspected weapons depot in Poland [...] and twelve people die.
What happens politically in Europe then? Will everyone immediately say: this is Article 5 [of the North Atlantic Treaty], that is, a case of collective defense? And will we respond militarily as a united front? Or will the Poles say: we will respond. And other NATO countries will declare: it's too risky for us to enter into confrontation with Russia because of this».
In such a case, the expert believes, Russia could seriously weaken NATO politically without using a large-scale attack.
Hanna Notte heads the Eurasia Program at the James Martin Center, and also serves as a senior research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
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Comments
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Иначе, все перечисленные, перестанут быть финами, поляками, латышами, эстонцами, литовцами, норвежцами, датчанами, британцами, а станут теми же россиянами с какой-то и от кого-то отметиной, что и произошло с беларусами в Беларуси.
Одного, норвежского фонда, хватит на успокоение нескольких Россий.
Произойдёт то же, что и с НАТО, которую захотел похоронить путин руками Трампа, да и посмотрите, что происходит с "похороненной" Украиной "за три дня" и тем же, несколько раз "уничтоженным", Ираном Трампом.
На выходе, все перечисленные будут существовать, а вот Россия и её русский мир могут пропасть с карты мира, русский мир и так пропадёт, власть российская, засучив рукава, утилизирует русский народец, плюс катастрофическая демография не в пользу русского народца, финиш понятен, но позже, а так можно всё ускорить.....