European intelligence: Putin's economy will withstand another year of war

According to the intelligence official's assessment, thanks to additional oil and gas revenues, the Russian authorities will be able to finance the war against Ukraine until at least next spring — and possibly for another full season.

The price of Russian Urals oil, which fell to $40 per barrel and below at the beginning of the year, rose to approximately $82 in the second quarter. In April-June, Russia, according to the Central Bank, received about $30 billion in additional export revenues. In July, oil and gas revenues to the Russian budget reached 934 billion rubles (about $11 billion) — 18% more than a year earlier, and 2.5 times more than the figure for the winter months.

High oil prices allowed the Kremlin to partially cover the budget deficit and postpone the moment when economic difficulties might force Putin to make more difficult choices regarding the continuation of the war. However, the fundamental problems of the Russian economy have not disappeared.

From January to July, the deficit of the Russian federal budget reached 6.5 trillion rubles ($76.5 billion) — this is already 70% more than the initially planned deficit for the entire year 2026. According to various estimates, by the end of the year, it could grow to 7-8 trillion rubles (from $82.4 to $94.2 billion) and even more.

At the same time, the Russian economy has almost stopped growing. While GDP increased by more than 4% annually in 2023-2024, in 2025, growth was about 1%, and in the first half of 2026 — only 0.6%. Industry outside the military-industrial complex is virtually in recession: production volumes are almost 5% lower than the 2024 level.

However, economic problems alone are unlikely to force Putin to stop the war. According to Elina Ribakova, a researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the situation would have to deteriorate significantly. For example, a prolonged period of oil prices at $35-40 per barrel would be necessary. Under current conditions, such a scenario seems unlikely.

American officials also believe that a real window for negotiations on Ukraine may not open until autumn 2027. According to The New York Times, Washington expects continued hostilities, a new Russian offensive in winter, and increased strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.

A new mobilization in Russia or further escalation of confrontation with NATO is also not ruled out.

• 0
• 0
• 1
• 3
• 0
• 1
• 5
• 0