And named what can be considered a success in the current conditions.
Independent public and political activity in today's Belarus is practically impossible, and the country itself is one step away from turning into a totalitarian state. Journalist and former political prisoner Andrzej Poczobut gave this assessment during a meeting in Vilnius on July 22.
"If we talk in general about the possibility of any independent political activity, I haven't heard of such a thing being possible in today's Belarus. If you were to ask me now how I define it, I would say that Belarus is five minutes away from a totalitarian state," Poczobut stated.
In his opinion, even the possibility of slowing down this process can be considered a success in the current conditions.
"If it is possible to turn these five minutes into ten or fifteen, that will also be a great success. Unfortunately, this is the corridor of opportunities now," the journalist noted.
Much, according to Poczobut, will depend on the development of events in Ukraine: how the war will end and what the balance of power in the entire region will be afterwards.
"Perhaps the situation will change. Everything depends on how events develop in Ukraine, how this war ends, what the balance of power in the region will be," he said.
"I have a feeling that I am between one world and another"
During the meeting, Poczobut also confirmed previously announced plans to return to Grodno in September and join the activities of the Union of Poles in Belarus.
The journalist explained that he had no intention of leaving the country. According to him, he could have left back in 2021, after the first months of imprisonment, but he didn't.
The situation changed when Americans joined the negotiations regarding his release and received assurances from the Belarusian authorities that Poczobut would be able to return after leaving.
"They gave me a passport. I am returning, planning to return to Grodno in September and participate in the activities of the Union of Poles in Belarus. These plans of mine, in essence, have not changed over the past ten years. So for me, this is a natural choice," he stated.
Poczobut admitted that returning home was his main dream behind bars.
"Life in prison was hard. What did I dream of? I dreamed that I would return home. I haven't returned home yet, but I believe I will return in September. Now I have such a feeling that I am between one world and another. And I want to go to Grodno," the journalist said.
Particularly difficult after his release was the realization of how much time he had lost in his relationship with his children. When Poczobut was detained, his son was 11 years old; now he is 16.
"The biggest shock was when I saw my son: he is already taller than me. When you are absent, your place is taken by emptiness. And then you appear. And in reality, it's not all that easy and pleasant — it's still life," he shared.
Poczobut agreed with the words of the writer Varlam Shalamov that prison experience brings no benefit to a person: "It's a bitter experience that is better not to have at all."
Poles in Belarus may again be left without a voice
Poczobut paid special attention to the situation of the Polish minority. According to him, both the Belarusian authorities and the Poles themselves understand: a situation may arise where the Polish community will have no representation and presence in the public space at all.
"Polishness will be condemned to silence. As it was in Soviet times," he warned.
Poczobut acknowledged that the activities of the Union of Poles in Belarus are very much restricted today. In particular, within the organization, it is practically impossible to teach history as the representatives of the Polish community themselves see it.
"No one wants to talk about the history that is allowed to be spoken about. But it is forbidden to talk about how it actually was, because that provokes repression. My criminal case, among others, was connected precisely with such a view on historical events," Poczobut recalled.
At the same time, the Union retains the possibility to study the Polish language. According to the journalist, the very fact of the organization's existence and the preservation of at least some public presence is of extraordinary importance for the Polish minority.
He mentioned that in Soviet times in the Grodno region, Polishness was almost completely driven out of the public sphere. Unlike the Vilnius region, where Polish schools operated and a Polish-language newspaper was published, in Grodno and its surroundings there were no such opportunities.
"There was no presence in the public sphere. Polishness in the Grodno region was condemned to silence. The example of the Vilnius region had a very significant influence even at the very beginning of the Polish movement in Belarus. From Radun or even from Lida, it was closer to go for Polish culture specifically to Vilnius. And this spread throughout the entire Grodno region," Poczobut said.
Andrzej Poczobut is a journalist for Gazeta Wyborcza and one of the leaders of the Polish minority in Belarus. He was detained in Grodno in March 2021, and in February 2023, he was sentenced to eight years in a penal colony on charges of "inciting hatred" and "calls for actions aimed at harming national security." The reason for the persecution, among other things, was his publications and views on historical events. Human rights defenders recognized Poczobut as a political prisoner.
On April 28, 2026, he was released after more than five years of imprisonment as part of an exchange between Belarus and Poland and handed over to the Polish side. Poczobut himself insists that his home remains in Grodno.
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