Russia may attempt to conduct new tests of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile on May 9, a symbolic date for Victory Day, writes The Moscow Times. Preparations for a possible launch, it is claimed, are already evident through technical and administrative measures.
Screenshot from a video of a failed Sarmat test attempt in November 2025
Kamchatka authorities announced restrictions on staying and moving near the Kura test site. Additionally, aviation warnings (NOTAMs) were published, affecting several large zones — including in the Barents and Kara Seas, as well as test site areas in the Orenburg region and the Far East.
Experts cited by journalists believe this corresponds to the typical scheme for preparing Sarmat tests. Similar zones were already closed during previous failed launches, including in November 2025.
The "Sarmat" is a new-generation Russian intercontinental missile, intended to replace the Soviet R-36M2 "Voevoda" (also known as Satan in NATO classification). It is designed to carry nuclear warheads over very long distances and is considered one of the key components of Russia's nuclear strategy.
However, the testing program has encountered serious problems. In 2024, it was reported about a failed launch when the missile fell almost immediately after launch, and other incidents were subsequently recorded, including explosions during tests. Since previous attempts did not result in a successful flight, this raises doubts about the system's readiness for operation.
Analysts note that the launch window coincides with Victory Day – one of Russia's main state holidays. Amid reports of the cancellation of part of the military parade due to drone threats, experts suggest that authorities may try to demonstrate "strength" through a missile test.
According to military analysts, the persistent problems with Sarmat could mean:
- a delay in modernizing Russia's nuclear forces;
- continued reliance on old Soviet missile systems;
- additional strain on old missiles, whose service life is already very long.
In fact, Sarmat was conceived as a key replacement for old silo-based missiles, but its deployment has been postponed several times.
Now, according to experts, it's not about confirmed success, but about another test attempt after a series of failures. If the launch occurs and again ends unsuccessfully, it could further call into question the system's actual readiness for service.
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