Anne Applebaum: Another attempt to negotiate with Lukashenka will fail

Applebaum answered questions from Radio Svaboda after a discussion organized by "Bank of Ideas" in Warsaw.

"Lukashenka depends on a neighboring dictator to stay in power"

— After the events of 2020, the West actively supported the Belarusian democratic movement. Six years have passed, Lukashenka is still in power, and Belarus is increasingly dependent on Russia. Do you think Western countries still believe that Belarus can become a democratic country? Or are they starting to accept Lukashenka's rules?

— First of all, I no longer like the term "the West." If we mean the democratic world — America, Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan — I think that part of this world will never recognize Lukashenka. Here, in Poland, there are people who will never recognize him and who see him as a threat to the entire region.

Yes, for people who live farther away and know less about Belarus, this question may not be of such great importance. But I think that any serious analyst who studies this region and understands the balance of power knows: a free Belarus, or at least a pro-European Belarus that is not effectively part of Russia, is much better for the security and prosperity of Europe, as well as for the well-being of Belarusians themselves.

— What, in your opinion, is Lukashenka's main weakness now?

— In that he remains in power only thanks to Putin's support.

Lukashenka overcame the resistance of Belarusians thanks to his ties with Russia; this makes him a weak ruler. He depends on a neighboring dictator to stay in power.

The ideology he uses, the methods he employs — none of this would work if it weren't for Putin. I think this is obvious to everyone.

"The most important thing is for Ukraine to win, and Russia to lose"

— How can the end of the war in Ukraine affect the future of Belarus?

— I truly believe that the future of Belarus very much depends on the broader geopolitical situation. It depends on what is happening in Europe. Of course, it depends on what is happening in Ukraine and in Russia.

As Russia's power weakens (and I truly think that sooner or later this will happen), Belarusians will have more space to determine their own future. The most important thing is for Ukraine to win, and Russia to lose. And I think that would be very good for Belarus.

— Representatives of the US administration and the Polish government are negotiating with Lukashenka to achieve the release of political prisoners and other practical results. But is there a risk that these negotiations actually strengthen his regime?

— I think so, yes, there is. Currently, we have an American administration that believes that by offering people business deals, better relations can be established with them. I believe this is a mistake.

People like Lukashenka don't think that way. And people like Putin don't think that way either. But the American administration believes in it.

They try to offer him deals in the hope of somehow bringing him closer to themselves or to Europe. Other countries have also tried this. There have been many different periods when Poland sought to establish more open relations with Belarus. Germany also tried this.

All these attempts ended in failure, and I think the current attempt will also fail.

But everyone who comes to power wants to try to do it again. And yes, of course, there is a risk. It simply legitimizes Lukashenka.

— What can Belarusians themselves do now to bring about political changes?

— I think it's important to build a true Belarusian democratic culture, even if it happens outside of Belarus. And to create an idea of a nation that you can carry with you, wherever you are. If you have to be outside your country — well, so be it. Historically, there have been other movements in exile that did the same.

You should also, of course, stay in touch with your friends and family back home, as much as possible. Keep reminding them that a free Belarus exists outside the country.

And then, even if nothing else works out, you will at least live your life as a free person.

Main theses of Anne Applebaum during the discussion in Warsaw

On Belarusian protests of 2020

“You were fighting not only against Lukashenka, you were fighting against Putin and, to a lesser extent, against Xi Jinping and others.”

Why dictatorships unite

“Authoritarian regimes have shifted from a relatively neutral attitude towards the democratic world and even an interest in trading with it — to perceiving it as an ideological enemy. This has changed their propaganda, attitude towards trade, and transnational repression.”

Why Putin got scared during Maidan

“Putin saw his worst nightmare coming true. People take to street demonstrations with anti-corruption posters, wave EU flags, the president flees the country, and the crowd enters his palace and shows off gold taps in the bathroom. This is precisely what Putin fears. And then he understood that he must suppress the Ukrainian revolution and the Ukrainian government because they threaten his type of authoritarian rule.”

Conditions for normalizing relations with Russia

“As long as Putin's goal is to wage a continuous war against the West, destroy the Western political system, weaken the European Union, destroy NATO, and establish political or economic control over at least the eastern half of Europe, possibly even including Poland, — we will not be able to have normal relations. We need some changes in the Russian political system.”

Future of Russia

“Russia will not disappear anywhere. It will not cease to exist. I think the fantasy that it will somehow break up into a hundred small republics is also not consistent with reality. Therefore, in the future, we will have to find some way to coexist with Russia. But this does not depend on us and not on our negotiators. It depends on what happens in Moscow.”

UN crisis and the need for new international institutions

“The UN in its current form, with this completely dysfunctional Security Council, which includes Russia, China, Great Britain, France, and America, — such a system makes no sense and is increasingly losing legitimacy. Perhaps, instead of continuing to use old institutions that do not work, it is time to think about something new.”

“Perhaps in the 21st century, we need international institutions that will not necessarily have their own buildings in New York or Geneva or a huge international bureaucracy. Perhaps they will be more like coalitions of countries ready to act together, like the coalition created around Ukraine. Perhaps we need such a coalition to fight international kleptocracy or money laundering.”

How technology helps dictatorships

“China has indeed become a pioneer in this field. Chinese authorities can track people's movements, their purchases, internet and bank card usage, monitor them on the streets with facial recognition cameras, and control public conversations in such a way as to anticipate political changes and the emergence of new political ideas. These are truly new opportunities that governments previously did not have on such a scale.”

“Perhaps we will need a technological solution. Now we have VPNs and other small tools. But, perhaps, this is an area where creative people who care about democracy need to think about how to build a world where such control would be impossible.”

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