387 Thousand Belarusians in the European Union with Residence Permits

Illustrative photo

In Warsaw, at the V Conference of Belarusians of the World, the first results of the study "Counting Belarusians of the World" were presented. It was prepared by People's Embassies together with researchers to answer the question: how many Belarusians live outside Belarus today? The results of the study were presented by Anastasia Svirkova, a representative of the People's Embassy of Belarus in Austria, and Vadim Mojeiko, head of the Kościuszko Institute for Security Studies.

And from the very first minutes, it became clear: the question only seems simple. Belarusians in the world cannot simply be counted by passports. Because who exactly should be considered Belarusian? Someone was born in Belarus but has already obtained citizenship of another country. Someone remains a Belarusian citizen but is in the European Union with a residence permit. Someone has received refugee status. Someone lives between two countries — legally still "here", practically already "there". And if a person has already obtained other citizenship but continues to speak Belarusian, attend Belarusian events, participate in the life of the diaspora — do they fall out of statistics or not?

That is why the study does not provide a single magic number. It rather shows a map of the Belarusian presence in the world — complex, uneven, and very vibrant. Identity exists, a connection with Belarus exists, but official documents, statuses, and statistics increasingly diverge.

Almost a Million Permits in the European Union

One of the most striking figures of the presentation is 981,679. This is the number of first residence permits Belarusians received in EU countries between 2020 and 2024.

This does not mean that almost a million Belarusians moved to the EU permanently. First permits can include various legal situations: work, study, long-term visas, humanitarian grounds. Some people might have obtained documents but not stayed in the country permanently. Others moved several times, changed status, or waited for legalization.

The same person could have changed several countries over a few years. For example, first moving to Ukraine, then due to the war — to Poland. Or arriving in Georgia, failing to legalize, and then going to Lithuania, Poland, or Spain. In each new country, they might receive a "first" residence permit. For statistics, this will be a new case. In reality, it's the same person who simply continues to seek a safe place and documents.

Therefore, a more realistic indicator is the number of valid residence permits in European Union countries.

The study separately cites their number — 386,834 (initially, the text had an erroneous figure of 550 thousand. — NN). And if one looks broader — not only at the European Union but also at the Council of Europe countries, which also include Georgia, Ukraine, Turkey, and other states — the picture becomes even wider.

But even this is not the final "number of Belarusians in Europe". Because there are those who have already obtained citizenship of another country. There are those who live on other legal grounds.

Eurostat records that in 2024, the number of first permits issued to Belarusian citizens in the EU significantly decreased compared to peak years: among the top 10 third-country nationalities, Belarus had the largest relative drop after 2023 — -37.9%. However, this does not necessarily mean people are returning to Belarus. Rather, part of the migration is shifting from "first entry" mode to consolidation mode: people have already received their initial documents, are continuing legalization, relocating families, opening businesses, and building lives.

For comparison: a study by the "Batskaushchyna" Association of Belarusians of the World at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries stated that about 3.5 million Belarusians lived outside Belarus. But this is a completely different type of calculation: not only based on current migration documents but on a broader understanding of the Belarusian presence in the world — origin, identity, historical communities.

The presentation also mentioned the figure 790,232 from UN data. This is an estimate of the international migrant stock: the number of people of Belarusian origin / born in Belarus who lived outside the country as of mid-2024. However, two points must be considered: first, these UN data cover broader historical migration and show the accumulated Belarusian presence in the world at a specific moment, and second, these data are transmitted to the UN from official Belarusian statistics.

That is why researchers emphasize: there is no single "correct" figure. 981,679 first permits in the EU show the scale of movement after 2020. 386,834 current permits in the EU show a picture closer to the current legal presence of Belarusians in the European Union.

Poland — The Main Gathering Point

Poland remains the main country for Belarusian migration in Europe.

Poland accounts for about 65% of all valid residence permits issued to Belarusians in the EU, and about 86% of initial permits.

The reasons are clear. This includes geographical and linguistic proximity, relatively easy legalization, educational and employment opportunities, the presence of Belarusian communities, and the consistent political stance of the Polish authorities regarding Belarus.

A separate illustrative block is Belarusian business in Poland. According to the data presented in the study, there are 7,093 companies with Belarusian capital in the Polish register. Such companies refer to legal entities where Belarusian citizens or Belarusian companies act as shareholders, founders, or ultimate beneficiaries. The largest concentration is in the capital Mazowieckie Voivodeship, where 3,860 such companies are registered. This is followed by Podlaskie, Lower Silesian, Lublin, Pomeranian, and other voivodeships.

Павялічыць

Screenshot from the research presentation

This is an important indicator: Belarusians in Poland are no longer just "waiting it out". They are opening companies, paying taxes, hiring people, and building new professional and social connections.

Other researchers draw a similar conclusion: after 2020, Poland and Lithuania became the main destinations for Belarusian migration in the EU, and in Poland, Belarusians became the second most significant group of foreign workers after Ukrainians.

Spain — An Unexpected Growth Point

If Poland is the main gathering point, then Spain appears as a new growth point in the study.

According to the provided data, in 2024, Spain became the leader among European countries in terms of the peak number of initial residence permits obtained by Belarusians. In many other countries, these peaks had already passed (in 2020 and 2023), while in Spain, on the contrary, they only occurred.

This could mean that Spain will see an increase in long-term legalization for Belarusians in the future. People who obtained their initial documents in 2024 will proceed to more stable statuses, integrate, and build communities.

This may indicate a second wave of redistribution of Belarusian migration. Some people who initially moved to countries closer to Belarus are eventually starting to look for more stable, comfortable, or long-term options.

Georgia: From Rapid Inflow to a Point of Decline

The third important point on the Belarusian migration map is Georgia. It was called a "point of decline".

After 2020, Georgia became one of the easiest and most important destinations for Belarusians. The reasons were clear: one could relatively easily arrive there, live without a visa for up to 365 days, open a business, resolve daily issues without complex bureaucracy, and the milder climate and lower costs compared to many EU countries also played a role. Transport connectivity was also a significant factor: Georgia remained one of the few points where one could safely fly from both Europe and Belarus — with a direct Belavia flight.

But statistics show that this wave began to shrink. In 2021, 1,583 Belarusian citizens arrived in Georgia, and 157 departed. In 2022, the inflow sharply increased: 13,361 arrivals versus 852 departures. However, by 2023, the balance shifted: 3,557 arrivals and 4,537 departures. In 2024, it became almost zero: 2,451 arrivals and 2,598 departures.

Overall, for 2021-2024, the positive balance was 12,808 people. But the dynamics show: Georgia has become a temporary or transit point for many.

Павялічыць

Screenshot from the research presentation

Many reasons influenced this. These include problems with legalization, the expiration of Belarusian passports, the lack of prospects for long-term status, the closure of Belarusian spaces in Tbilisi and Batumi, and a general change in the political sentiment of the country.

According to researchers, the Belarusian diaspora in Georgia, as it existed from 2021-2024, will most likely no longer be seen in that form.

The Diaspora Has a Female Face

Another interesting detail of the study is the gender balance.

In many migration waves, there is a clear imbalance: mostly men or mostly women leave. In Belarusian migration, there is no such strong imbalance.

According to the provided data, the overall balance is quite close to how genders are distributed within Belarus itself. In total, women comprise about 54%, men — 46%.

The war in Ukraine affected certain indicators: in 2022, for example, more men left for Georgia. But in other years, the gender split returned to a more balanced picture.

Павялічыць

Screenshot from the research presentation

This has both a plus and a minus. The minus is that family migration reduces the motivation to return to Belarus. If a person left alone for work, they often have a strong connection to home, where their family remained. If the family left together — life begins to be built in a new place.

But there's also a plus: such migration helps preserve Belarusian identity. When people leave with partners, children, and loved ones, they can speak Belarusian at home, pass on the memory of Belarus to their children, and create a more sustainable Belarusian environment around themselves.

A New Feature of Migration — Seriality

One of the study's hypotheses concerns serial migration. This is a situation where a person goes through several stages of relocation in search of a place where they can finally settle.

Typical scenarios look like this: Belarus — Ukraine — Poland; Belarus — Georgia — EU; Belarus — Lithuania — Poland; Belarus — Georgia — Belarus for documents — new country. The reasons can be varied: war, problems with legalization, passport expiration, lack of work, inability to integrate, language barrier, absence of family or community in the country.

This is important for understanding the numbers. If a person moves several times, they can appear in different national statistics multiple times. This means that the Belarusian community is very mobile: today people are in one country, a year later — in another.

2026 — The Point of Consolidation

Perhaps the main conclusion of the study is: Belarusian migration is entering a new phase.

The first phase after 2020 was a phase of urgent departure. People were fleeing repression, job loss, threats, uncertainty, the war in Ukraine, and its consequences for the region.

The second phase is the adaptation phase. Belarusians addressed everyday issues, dealt with legalization, learned languages, obtained documents, sought employment, opened organizations, launched businesses, created schools, media outlets, and cultural venues.

Now, in 2026, the third phase — consolidation — is becoming increasingly apparent. This means that a significant portion of Belarusians abroad no longer live with the logic of "waiting a few months". People will increasingly obtain long-term residence permits, new passports, and stable forms of legalization. They are buying homes, moving parents, having children, opening companies, acquiring new citizenship, and integrating into local labor markets.

This could be both an opportunity and a risk. The opportunity is that Belarusians abroad will finally gain resources to develop their own institutions. The risk, however, is that along with settling in new countries, there might be an increased detachment from the Belarusian agenda.

• 17
• 0
• 2
• 3
• 2
• 7
• 0
• 1