The size of Canada's army is growing at the fastest pace in 30 years. The reason is not only Trump
Among the factors are high youth unemployment and the promise of high salaries in the military. But there are other reasons.
Photo: Canadian Armed Forces
The Canadian army is growing at a record pace and has reached the highest number of recruits in the last 30 years. This growth over the past two years comes amid major armed conflicts and geopolitical uncertainty in the world. Also, as Canada pours billions into new military funding, despite not meeting its NATO obligations for many years, writes the BBC.
This also coincides with an unusual rise in nationalism that emerged after US President Donald Trump called Canada the "51st state" — a remark many saw as a threat to the country's sovereignty from its closest neighbor.
Charlotte Duval-Lantoine, a research fellow at the Canadian Institute of Global Affairs who studies Canadian military culture, noted that while the recent surge in recruits might be due to the "Trump effect," the number of applications for military service began to rise sharply back in 2022, around the time Russia invaded Ukraine.
"When people see the world becoming less safe, that their country might be in danger... there is usually an increase in the number of people willing to enlist," she said.
Global conflicts are not the only factor contributing to this growth, according to Duval-Lantoine. She says that high youth unemployment in Canada, which was nearing 14% in March, and the promise of guaranteed employment and higher wages after Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the most significant increase in military pay in a generation, also played a role.
Last year, since taking office, Carney made the armed forces a priority of his government, presenting, by his own definition, an "ambitious" plan for rapid modernization and expansion of the Canadian armed forces.
In March, he announced that Canada, for the first time since the late 1980s, had officially met NATO's target of spending 2% of GDP on defense, amounting to over 63 billion Canadian dollars (46 billion US dollars) in one year. Carney also committed to NATO's pledge to spend up to 5% of GDP on defense by 2035.
Canada reached the 2% threshold through salary increases, as well as commitments to purchase new equipment, modernize existing bases, and build new infrastructure in the Arctic.
According to analysts, even with new recruits, the Canadian armed forces still lag significantly behind their allies. They warn that the additional funds will not have an immediate noticeable effect.
Richard Shimooka, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, a public policy think tank, says that the Canadian armed forces are currently capable of simultaneously deploying only a few thousand soldiers and a limited number of fighter jets. According to him, by comparison, the British armed forces can deploy 10,000 troops if necessary.
"The state of the Canadian armed forces is currently at a very low level, and it will be five or ten years before we see a real uplift," Shimooka said.
According to Shimooka, one of the main reasons for this is Canada's historical over-reliance on the US for defense – its neighbor and the world's largest military power.
Successive US presidents and officials have repeatedly pressured Canada to increase defense spending, and critics have called Canada a "free-rider." US House Speaker Mike Johnson accused Canada in 2024 of "riding on America's coattails."
Last year, Trump singled out Canada as one of the NATO members not spending enough on defense. In June, he told reporters: "Canada says, 'Why should we pay when the US defends us for free?'"
According to a report published by the alliance last year, Canada still remains one of the least generous NATO members — lagging behind the US, UK, and France — even after reaching the 2% target.
Less bureaucracy and a welcoming reception for foreigners
Canada's ability to attract more recruits is a sign that the situation may be gradually improving. Canadian Defense Minister David McGuinty stated that he believes the country can achieve its recruitment targets sooner than projected.
The number of army resignations has also slightly decreased, although as recently as 2024, the then Minister of Defense Bill Blair described the situation as a "death spiral."
During a recent sovereignty and security operation in the Arctic, held in Canada's northern territory of Nunavut, military personnel told the BBC that the new funding came at an opportune time and, in several cases, was long overdue.
"We are a couple of decades behind, but at least now we are trying to do something," said Alden Campbell, a Royal Canadian Air Force officer. He noted that recent changes in the pay structure, as well as the promise of equipment modernization, have led to improved morale.
"I hope to live to see the age and stage of my career when I can benefit from these upgrades," he said.
In late April, the Canadian Armed Forces announced that they had enlisted over 7,000 people in the past fiscal year — the highest number of recruits in three decades.
This is only a small fraction of the total number of people who expressed a desire to join the military. According to data provided to the BBC by Canada's Department of National Defence, as of February, the number of confirmed applications to join the Canadian Armed Forces almost doubled compared to the previous year, increasing from 21,700 to 40,116.
These figures reflect the number of applicants who submitted the necessary documents to confirm their eligibility for service. The total number of applications was significantly higher, reaching almost 100,000 in the past year. This is a substantial jump compared to 2019-2020, when about 36,000 people applied.
Canadian Armed Forces Lieutenant-Colonel Travis Hynes told the BBC that he believes the increase in new recruits is largely due to the military streamlining bureaucratic procedures.
The Canadian Armed Forces have long been criticized for their inability to promptly process applications and admit candidates for service, and the army recently digitized some elements of the application process — including allowing documents to be submitted electronically — to speed things up.
"The interest was always there," Hynes said. "It was just difficult to get through the system."
Another significant change in recruitment in recent years has been the ability for permanent residents of Canada, not just citizens, to apply — a measure that came into effect in 2022. Last year, foreign nationals accounted for about 20% of recruits.
Canada is currently planning a significant expansion of its armed forces: the plan is to increase the number of regular military personnel to 85,500 and create a mobilization force of up to 300,000 reservists.
Duval-Lantoine states that Canada has not implemented a mobilization plan of such scale since 2004. This is a sign that the country is taking into account the war in Ukraine, which continues largely thanks to Ukraine's military potential.
Canada, like its European allies, is trying to "prepare for future wars by analyzing the current one," she said.
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