Popular resource Visual Capitalist, relying on fresh UN data, published a large-scale study on global birth rates.
Illustrative photo from social media
As the authors note, today about 71% of the world's population lives in countries where the fertility rate is below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman). This is the minimum necessary to maintain a population size without accounting for migration. If the indicator remains below this mark for a long time, the country faces an aging population, a shortage of labor resources, and an economic slowdown.
The Visual Capitalist study is based on UN data from the updated World Population Prospects 2024 report. The calculations used average projected indicators for 2025 for both population size and birth rate.
These data reveal a profound gap between the world's regions, which has effectively split into two demographic poles. On one side are Europe, North America, and East Asia, which are steadily aging. Today, even giants like India (1.94) and the USA (1.62) no longer ensure even simple reproduction of their populations.
In stark contrast is Sub-Saharan Africa. This region will be the main driver of global population growth until 2100. While developed countries struggle with a demographic crisis, in states like Chad or Somalia, the birth rate still remains at a conventionally high level — about 6 children per woman.
Where is Belarus?
Belarus is among the top 20 countries with the lowest birth rate. The low fertility rate in Belarus reflects a general European trend, but combined with other demographic factors, this creates serious challenges for the future of the state.
For comparison, the lowest indicators in the world are recorded in: Macau (0.69), Hong Kong (0.74), and South Korea (0.75).
Belarus is on the list with an indicator of 1.22. A similar fertility level is observed in Italy (1.21), UAE (1.21), Mauritius (1.21), Lithuania (1.22), Japan (1.23), and Spain (1.23).
Top 25 countries with the lowest birth rate. Source: visualcapitalist.com
It should be noted that the figures from Belarusian scientists are even less optimistic. Last year, Natallia Yakubitskaya, director of the Center for Human Development and Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, cited more alarming data: the total fertility rate for the country was 1.1, and in Minsk, it dropped to a critical 0.6.
If we look at this indicator, Belarus would be among the top 10 countries with the lowest birth rate.
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