Commander-in-Chief of the Latvian Armed Forces: Russia has a window for aggression until 2030
Major General Kaspars Pudāns told DW how Latvia is using Ukraine's military experience and why Russian provocations are not achieving their goal.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs (second from left) visits exercises in early March; to his right is Kaspars Pudāns, photo: E. Rinkēvičs's Facebook.
"We look at Russia from various points of view. One of them is historical, which makes us increase our vigilance. But over the last decade, we have been carefully observing what Russia is doing in Ukraine, as well as in the information and cyberspace. And, of course, we are well aware that we are on the list of those who 'deserve punishment.' They certainly won't forgive us for leaving their sphere of influence, joining NATO and the EU. And, of course, our open support for Ukraine over the past 4-5 years also angers Russia," Pudāns said.
He points out that most Russian forces are currently engaged in Ukraine, and Latvia is grateful to the Ukrainians for holding them back.
"Nevertheless, Russian activity – surveillance, provocations – is recorded at our borders. We observed such behavior even before 2022 in the Baltic Sea and airspace. Russia also uses migrant pressure on the borders, and Moscow is clearly focused on broader actions: sabotage, intimidation. But this shows Russia's weakness – they use such methods because they have no other tools. At the same time, the element of surprise is lost," believes the Commander-in-Chief.
Kaspars Pudāns also rejects the idea of creating "separatist republics" in the Baltic countries, as was the case in Ukraine in 2014 with the DNR and LNR.
"I think it would be unwise for Russia to try such a scenario again. We have worked on it since 2014. Special services, police, and border guards are monitoring the situation. Talk about 'separatist republics' is more of an information operation. We understand who is behind it. Moscow has no real resources for this. People already believe less in the narrative about the violation of their rights in Latvia," he says.
"If we imagine the war in Ukraine being frozen, in how many years will Russia again become a real threat to Latvia?" — the journalist asked.
"It is worth observing what will happen to the mobilized. Some of them will not be demobilized. Some may be transferred to bases in other regions. We already see the construction of new military facilities in northern Russia, closer to Finland. The most probable scenario is the redeployment of forces to our eastern borders. Russia has already weakened its positions there since 2013. If I were in the Kremlin, I would say that my 'window of opportunity' is 2027-2029. After 2030, it may close: Russia will become stronger, but so will Europe and NATO," believes Kaspars Pudāns.
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