Shraibman: After the War in Ukraine, Russia May Send Its Troops to Belarus

Russian soldiers are welcomed in Belarus. January 2023. Photo: Kanstantsin Bialiauski / "Vayar"

According to Artyom Shraibman, after the end of the war, Russia may retain a significant portion of its army and use Belarus to station it. At the same time, this does not necessarily mean preparing for a new offensive.

“If, as a result of this war, Russia retains the ability to maintain its mobilization potential and this army, which they will not want to immediately demobilize and let the entire million back into Russia, it will have to be directed somewhere,” the analyst says.

Russian military personnel could be sent to Belarus for exercises, rest, or rehabilitation. In this way, Moscow will be able to continue creating tension on NATO's eastern flank even after the cessation of hostilities, Shraibman believes.

However, developments could also take a more positive turn, since with the end of the war, the risk of Belarus being dragged into it disappears.

“This could even allow (Alexander) Lukashenko to balance a bit more actively than he balances today. We might see greater concessions on political prisoners; we might see greater concessions on things that were blocked because of the war.”

Overall, how the situation develops for Belarus strongly depends on whether Moscow continues its aggressive policy after the war. If so, there can be nothing good for Belarus and its sovereignty.

“But if the calculations of the Russian authorities change and they decide that that's it, we have overextended ourselves, or enough of doing this at least for decades—this is a window of opportunity for Belarusian independence, for Belarusian sovereignty. Because even the current Belarusian government, any Belarusian government will be able to afford more in a situation where neither Russia, nor Ukraine, nor Western neighbors perceive it as a military staging ground,” the interviewee emphasizes.

Bad News for the Belarusian Economy

The end of the war could also bring an economic downturn for Belarus. Currently, Belarusian enterprises receive orders related to the needs of the Russian military industry. After the war, these revenues may decline, while Western sanctions against Belarus remain in place.

“A trap could emerge where the Russian military-industrial complex degrades, but sanctions are not lifted, and sources of growth for the Belarusian economy are not obvious. Even now, growth is very small—around 2%.

I think this is the temporary trap that Lukashenko, by the way, wants to prevent, and it seems to me that his diplomatic activism over the past year to year and a half has also been driven by this,” says Shraibman.

In addition, Russia may reduce economic support for Belarus, as the latter will cease to play such an important role in meeting Moscow's military needs. Based on Lukashenko's latest statements, the analyst concluded that the ideal scenario for the politician would be a cooling of relations on the Russian vector, but a revival of the European direction.

What Can Lukashenko Offer Besides Coffee?

While the war is not over, Lukashenko is once again proposing to make Minsk a venue for peace talks on Ukraine, as well as to participate in them. Shraibman believes the politician is trying to replicate the success of 2014–2015, when the negotiations in Minsk helped him break out of international isolation.

However, now Lukashenko has no convincing arguments in favor of holding talks in Belarus. Other venues exist—for example, Turkey, Austria, or Switzerland.

Shraibman also doubts that the Belarusian authorities will be able to offer the negotiators anything substantial:

“What can Aleksandr Grigoryevich put (on the negotiating table) besides coffee if this takes place in Minsk? That is a big question to which he currently has no answer.”

At the same time, Belarus can continue to participate in technical and humanitarian processes, such as organizing prisoner exchanges or returning civilians.

“Lukashenko will step in if something needs to be organized technically on the ground, but for that, one does not need to sit in the room (during negotiations),” Artyom Shraibman concludes.

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