A super El Niño is expected this year — record heat

The El Niño phenomenon is part of a natural cycle known as the Southern Oscillation, which alternates between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases every two to seven years. During the El Niño phase, massive bodies of warm water accumulate in the Pacific Ocean, spreading across the surface and releasing enormous amounts of heat into the atmosphere, which raises the planet's average temperature for many months.

When such ocean surface warming exceeds 2°C, the phenomenon is often referred to as "super El Niño" in public discourse and media, although researchers themselves typically do not use this term in official scientific terminology.

As reported by the Daily Mail, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is currently observing an alarming trend: the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean is rising faster than ever this century. This is a serious signal that a powerful El Niño could begin as early as May or June.

Павялічыць

Forecast of air temperature anomaly from normal for May-June-July 2026 (MJJ 2026), compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) based on several climate models

WMO specialists note the rare consistency of climate models, which predict with a high degree of confidence not only the onset of the phenomenon but also its further intensification in the coming months. Despite the existence of the so-called "spring predictability barrier," which complicates forecasts in April, experts have little doubt about the onset of a strong phase.

Forecasts from leading global agencies confirm the seriousness of the situation. According to estimates by the British Met Office, sea surface temperatures could rise 1.5°C above average, making this the strongest event of the current century. In turn, the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates the chances of a "very strong" El Niño with an anomaly of more than 2°C as one in four.

Some scientists, citing historical data, see the potential for the most powerful such event in the last 140 years.

Real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years. https://t.co/aT9IdIg4Fn

— Paul Roundy (@PaulRoundy1) April 5, 2026

It is important to understand that while the Southern Oscillation itself is not caused by climate change and the greenhouse effect, it is superimposed on existing global warming. This creates a cumulative effect: the extra heat from the ocean adds to the overall temperature background, leading to record temperature jumps. It was this combination that made 2024 the hottest year in history, and with the approach of a new super El Niño, the likelihood of new anti-records in the next two years remains very high.

The impact of this phenomenon will be global. Forecasts already indicate that in May and June, land surface temperatures will be above normal in almost all regions of the world. North and Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and North Africa will feel this most clearly.

However, the consequences of El Niño are not limited to rising temperatures. This phenomenon significantly reshapes global weather patterns. In some regions — for example, South America, the southern USA, the Somali Peninsula (Horn of Africa), and Central Asia — rainfall increases, often leading to floods. In other parts of the world, including Australia and Indonesia, conversely, droughts occur, which increase the risk of large-scale forest fires in Southeast Asia.

Thus, the upcoming climate cycle will be a serious test for the world economy and agriculture, requiring humanity to quickly adapt to new extreme conditions.

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