Friedman: Washington Allowed Iran to Save Face, Russia Gained Nothing
Double pressure — mad threats from Donald Trump on one side, and persistent advice from China and Pakistan on the other — forced the Iranian regime to make concessions. The temporary lull in the region is not the end of the war. And everyone benefited from the truce except Russia, believes political analyst Alexander Friedman.
Pro-government demonstrators chant slogans, holding Iranian flags and a poster of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the war with the United States and Israel, Tehran, April 8, 2026. Photo: AP Photo / Vahid Salemi
If one discards the Iranian propaganda tinsel about "unconditional victory," it becomes clear that Tehran, genuinely frightened by Trump's threats bordering on madness, under pressure from Pakistan and its patron China, accepted two principled demands from Washington that it had previously rejected:
-
a time-limited truce;
-
the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
In exchange for this, hostilities in Iran will be suspended for two weeks.
The fact that Iran's proposals have been declared the basis for negotiations, and Iranian propaganda is already trumpeting their acceptance, should not be confusing: this is merely "pulling the wool over the public's eyes" and no more than a bow from Washington, allowing Iran to save face and enter into negotiations.
A new stage begins in the game for Israel and the US, and negotiations may well follow the scenario of the war in Gaza, and hostilities could resume.
It is too early to name the winner in this confrontation.
Currently benefiting are the Persian Gulf countries, who get a respite; Pakistan, enjoying the laurels of a peacemaker who saved the region from a terrible escalation; European consumers, who benefit from falling oil prices; and (especially) China, which strengthens its reputation as a global superpower.
Among those who did not benefit is Russia, which helped the regime in Iran but failed – and this is a great success for Ukraine – to take advantage of the window of opportunity to achieve serious gains on the front.
Now reading
Tsapkala and Balkunets attacked a Lithuanian politician who helped Belarusians after 2020 and contributed to the case opened by the prosecutor in The Hague 5555
Comments
Нейкі цырк на дроце.
ПС. Чаго дасягнуў Трамп, дык гэта стварыў прэцэдэнт, калі суднаходства страціла права мірнага праходу тэрытарыяльных водаў... Свабода мараплаваньня пацярпела, бо іншыя марскія дзяржавы таксама зробяць свае тэрводы рэжымнымі і пачнуць спаганяць плату за транзітны праход. Калі гэта дазволена Ірану ды Аману, дык а што іншыя, рудыя ?