"Authoritarianism for Belarus was predestined, but Lukashenka was not." Politicians and historians recalled the 1990s in Warsaw
On July 27, a meeting took place at the Free Belarus Museum with philologist and translator, former deputy of the Supreme Soviet of the BSSR of the XII convocation, Liavon Barshcheuski. The discussion was joined by Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor Viktar Shadurski and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's senior political advisor, former People's Deputy of the USSR (1989—1991) and Deputy of the Supreme Soviet of the Republic of Belarus of the XIII convocation, Aliaksandr Dabravolski. Belsat TV channel shared interesting moments from the conversation.
Liavon Barshcheuski and Aliaksei Lastouski during the meeting "36 years of Belarusian independence" at the Free Belarus Museum. Warsaw, July 27, 2026. Photo: Raul Duke / Belsat
From what year should the countdown of Belarusian independence begin – from 1990 (the adoption of the Declaration of State Sovereignty) or from 1991 (the granting of constitutional law status to the Declaration)? This question was addressed to Liavon Barshcheuski at the beginning of the conversation by the moderator of the discussion, Director of the Belarusian Institute of Public History, Aliaksei Lastouski.
"I am a proponent of counting independence from 1918"
"I immediately want to say that I am a proponent of counting our independence from 1918, because it was then that the first truly independent decision was made," says Liavon Barshcheuski.
According to the former "independence deputy," the events of 1918 and 1990 cannot even be compared, because the statutory charters of the BNR in 1918 were adopted independently – by Belarusians in Belarus, while the decision on the adoption of the Declaration of State Sovereignty of the BSSR in 1990 was made "under the influence and with the permission of Moscow."
Barshcheuski recounts that the Supreme Soviet of the XII convocation had "a rather specific composition," in which even Aliaksandr Lukashenka appeared to be an opposition deputy. The democratic current within it was a minority, albeit a significant one (about 30%).
Liavon Barshcheuski during the meeting "36 years of Belarusian independence" at the Free Belarus Museum. Warsaw, July 27, 2026. Photo: Raul Duke / Belsat
"But the issue of independence, unfortunately, for most of that current was still something unimaginable. Even I myself in 1989 still didn't believe that anything could be done in that direction. Because — how? How could it be done with that iron-concrete power and party, which had the largest percentage of representatives among the population compared to other republics. And it was very conservative. This, naturally, complicated the prospects," explained Liavon Barshcheuski.
"But then big games started at the top," the former deputy continues. "And here, most likely, Mikhail Gorbachev himself… His cunning lawyers convinced him that if we want to create a new Union, everyone must declare their sovereignty. Maybe it wouldn't have happened if several republics hadn't already declared it – Lithuania, Latvia, Georgia, Armenia.
And it was clear that simply re-registering this Union would not work. Well, fine, you declared this sovereignty — and we will allow others to declare it. All the same, they must hold onto this iron chain. That's how it turned out…"
The speaker recalls how Mikalai Dzemianstsei (at that time – chairman of the Supreme Soviet of the BSSR) "once again went to Moscow," and upon returning from there declared: "You know, we need to adopt a declaration of state sovereignty…"
Liavon Barshcheuski reminds that the draft Declaration of Independence was adopted by the BPF Sejm back in May 1990 (published on July 1).
Aliaksei Lastouski during the meeting "36 years of Belarusian independence" at the Free Belarus Museum. Warsaw, July 27, 2026. Photo: Raul Duke / Belsat
"What kind of nation are you, that you don't have a single Independence Day?"
Liavon Barshcheuski does not go into detail about how the Supreme Soviet session took place on July 27, referring the listener to Siarhei Naumchyk's book "Seven Years of Revival, or Fragments of Recent Belarusian History (1988—1995)." In 1996, Naumchyk managed to take the transcripts of that historic session abroad.
"In principle, I agree with everything he wrote there," noted Liavon Barshcheuski.
But he emphasizes that, in essence, it was only a "declaration of intent," as it was effectively impossible to implement the adopted declaration for a year, until August 25, 1991, "when after the defeat of the putsch in Moscow, the communist party was pushed away from the levers of power," and the Declaration of State Sovereignty acquired the status of a constitutional law. This is another date of our independence.
"And the date when we really became independent, and few people talk about it, is December 10, 1991, when the Union Treaty of 1922 was denounced. It coincides, by the way, with Human Rights Day.
That's when other countries de jure began to recognize us as an independent state. And this is the date when our sovereignty was affirmed," concludes Liavon Barshcheuski.
"Some said: what kind of nation are you, that you don't have a single Independence Day? Well, we are such Belarusians, we will slowly… Maybe the fifth day will be the final victory…" – smiles the former Supreme Soviet deputy.
Was authoritarianism destined for Belarus?
"In 1990-1991, it seemed that Belarus was moving towards democracy and would become a free European state, but after a few years all these dreams ended in catastrophe – an authoritarian regime was established. The question: was this really a historical turning point? Did we have a chance to go a different way after all? Did Belarus have such a historical chance?" asks Aliaksei Lastouski to historian and author of the book "The Birth of the Belarusian Leviathan. Belarus from a Parliamentary Republic to an Authoritarian Regime (1990-1996)" Viktar Shadurski, who is participating in the discussion via video link.
"I will say right away that history has no subjunctive mood, so what happened, happened objectively and lawfully. But if we answer the question of how much Belarus was destined to become an authoritarian state in the mid-1990s, then my answer has two levels. And at the first level - yes: the establishment of an authoritarian regime in Belarus was a natural stage of history…" answers Viktar Shadurski.
The historian identifies four factors contributing to this predestination of authoritarianism: society's demand for a "strong hand," the elites' (bureaucracy's) unpreparedness for change, the disunity of the opposition (national democrats and liberals), and an unfavorable alignment of external forces (Europe's and Russia's attitudes towards Belarus).
Liavon Barshcheuski and Aliaksei Lastouski during the meeting "36 years of Belarusian independence" at the Free Belarus Museum. Warsaw, July 27, 2026. Photo: Raul Duke / Belsat
But on the second level, the question of whether "the Shklou deputy's rise to power" was inevitable has the answer "no," notes Viktar Shadurski. According to him, Lukashenka seized power as a result of four mistakes ("ill-conceived actions"). Shadurski lists them. First: Lukashenka's election to the anti-corruption commission (1993). Second: the lowering of the age qualification for presidential candidates to 35 years (1994). Third: support for Lukashenka by "young wolves."
"And the fourth mistake was that the democratic forces didn't see him. They considered the ruling party their main opponent. In turn, the ruling party considered the democratic forces their main opponent. This is how this populism broke through," explained Viktar Shadurski.
Aliaksandr Dabravolski during the meeting "36 years of Belarusian independence" at the Free Belarus Museum. Warsaw, July 27, 2026. Photo: Raul Duke / Belsat
Why impeachment failed
Aliaksandr Dabravolski, former People's Deputy of the USSR and the Supreme Soviet of Belarus, joins the discussion, recounting the battles over the Belarusian issue that took place in 1990-1991 in Moscow. But the listeners are interested in Belarus in 1996, when the impeachment procedure against Lukashenka was stopped.
"Was there still a chance to change power in Belarus in November 1996?" asks Belarusian historian Aliaksandr Smalianchuk.
"We collected 72 signatures; 70 were needed. We submitted them to the Constitutional Court and, unfortunately, it didn't work out. Firstly, they broke the Constitutional Court, some deputies began to be processed, threatened, their children's lives were threatened, parents were fired, they were plied with alcohol in hotels and so on. It didn't work out. Could it have worked? The probability was low. We understood this. Because the people still loved Lukashenka. Imagine, you talk to a simple person, and, for example, this old woman tells you: 'This is our dear Lukashenka…'".
Liavon Barshcheuski and Aliaksei Lastouski during the meeting "36 years of Belarusian independence" at the Free Belarus Museum. Warsaw, July 27, 2026. Photo: Raul Duke / Belsat
"Our attempt had meaning, but, unfortunately, the situation in the country was such that we had very few chances," Aliaksandr Dabravolski concluded a little later.
All participants of the meeting agree with this assessment.
"But I think we shouldn't end on a sad note," says Aliaksei Lastouski at the end of the discussion. "It seems to me, the most important thing is that Belarus gained independence: the Republic of Belarus exists.
Independence has become a value for all Belarusians, as research shows. And even when we talk about Lukashenka, he too sees no other option than to be the head of the Republic of Belarus. A generation has grown up that no longer sees any Soviet Unions and does not dream of them. And this is an undeniable course of history. Belarus, I think, will no longer disappear from the map."
"And the year 2020 confirms this," concludes Viktar Shadurski.