Chaly no longer sees Krutoy as Lukashenka's successor. And who does he name?
In the last elections, Chaly believed that Lukashenka would not run for re-election, and that Dmitry Krutoy, Head of the Administration, would take his place.
Sergey Chaly. Photo: Nasha Niva
Political analyst Sergey Chaly, in an interview with the YouTube channel "ChastnOK-Live", reflected on who could become Alexander Lukashenka's successor.
Alexander Ivulin, in turn, suggested that Chaly assess the chances of various representatives of the Belarusian elite. First on the list was Prime Minister Alexander Turchyn.
According to Chaly, this official is not among the most likely successors, as he is "very unambitious".
Alexander Turchyn. Photo: BelTA
"He wouldn't have stayed in power after all this with thoughts like: 'What else can I do? I don't know how to do anything else. And I will continue to toil on these galleys.' No," Chaly asserts.
Reflecting on the Chairwoman of the Council of the Republic, Natalya Kochanova, Chaly noted that, in his opinion, there was a period when they tried to "mold" Kochanova into a successor.
Natalya Kochanova. Photo: Telegram channel of the Council of the Republic
However, the analyst believes she began to behave too early as if she had already acquired this status.
"She played her cards too quickly. She embraced this game with too much enthusiasm. And Lukashenka didn't like that. (…)
A classic vizier's mistake, when you say: 'I don't have much time left. Let's, maybe...' In authoritarian societies, you should say: 'What is this? Who are you leaving us to?' And under no circumstances should you show any of your hopes. As soon as you show hope, you immediately drop out of this game."
Nikolai Snopkov. Photo: "Nasha Niva"
Chaly called First Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov "the most cunning" among high-ranking Belarusian officials and expressed the opinion that Snopkov well understands the real state of affairs, although he is forced to exist within the established system. According to the analyst, he could even be "not a bad option."
Chaly also did not rule out the possibility that the successor could be State Secretary of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich, especially since he is also Alexander Grigoryevich.
"The people won't even notice," the analyst joked.
Alexander Volfovich speaking at the wreath-laying ceremony at the Mound of Glory instead of Lukashenka. July 3, 2026. Video screenshot.
In his opinion, Volfovich is one of the few representatives of the Belarusian elite who truly possesses full information about the situation and does not live in self-deception. Chaly recalled that he oversaw a comprehensive inspection of the Armed Forces and therefore well knows their real condition.
He also drew attention to Volfovich's speech at the Mound of Glory on Independence Day:
"He spoke quite competently at the Mound when he said that Lukashenka, don't worry, is resolving issues of a strategic nature. Although he was most likely lying under a drip or something similar."
Natalya Petkevich. Photo: BelTA
As for Deputy Prime Minister Natalya Petkevich, Chaly doesn't consider her at all.
"I think she was even dragged out against her will. She was living wonderfully, then they pulled her out and said: 'Now you'll be in charge of the social sphere.' And now they've also entrusted her with some hockey 'Dynamo' [to manage]. 'My God, me? Hockey? What?' In short, it's a nightmare there."
Chaly also doesn't believe in the prospects of Lukashenka's eldest son. According to him, Viktor made several serious political mistakes. In particular, "also a classic vizier's mistake, when he said: 'Let's prepare a new Constitution,' — supposedly, a change of generations and all that. And his father understood that he was waiting."
Viktor Lukashenka. Photo: NOC of Belarus
Moreover, Viktor Lukashenka, according to Chaly, spoiled relations with the state apparatus, because
"instead of achieving his goals by coordinating interests with others, he decided: 'Why should I negotiate with you? My father will sign a decree now — and that's it'."
As for Chaly's former favorite as a successor, Head of Lukashenka's Administration Dmitry Krutoy, the analyst notes that he has "deteriorated significantly" recently.
"At every meeting, he, as it's called in Russian, 'podpyzdyvaet' (roughly 'interjects'). That is, he interrupts and finishes his sentences for him or says: 'Yes-yes-yes.' He has found himself in this."
Dmitry Krutoy. Photo: BelTA
At the same time, Chaly emphasized that a successor under Lukashenka and a person who might come to power after him are not one and the same.
According to Chaly, after Lukashenka, power could end up in the hands of people whom almost no one considers for such a role today. At the same time, he does not believe that security forces will be able to play a decisive role in the transfer of power.
"Security forces — no. Simply no. Because, of course, they will participate, but, as experience shows, they lose. They think they have all the cards. In reality, they have nothing."