Historic +40.4°C in Pinsk – this is just the warm-up. Belarus enters a new climatic era and will visibly become a forest-steppe
The transition of Belarus's climate to a new temperature regime has ceased to be merely a scientific theory and has become an everyday reality. The update of historical maximums already in June indicates a fundamental restructuring of atmospheric processes over the region. Neither our infrastructure nor traditional agriculture is ready for this; the latter will soon have to bid farewell to moisture-loving potatoes in favor of steppe gourds.
For almost sixteen years, the figure of +38.9°C remained the temperature record. This indicator, recorded on August 8, 2010, in Gomel and Lelchitsy, seemed to be the limit of Belarus's nature's heat resistance. Before that, Vasylevichy was considered the hottest place, where in post-war August 1946, the air reached +38.0°C.
Official statistics, which have been kept for 145 years — starting from 1881 — recorded various fluctuations, but until June 29, 2026, no city had crossed the forty-degree threshold. This psychological barrier was considered unattainable for our climate.
The climatic front was breached in the southwest, with the advance coming in waves. First, on June 28, Malaryta updated the historical maximum for the first summer month — +37.6°C. However, the next day, the unimaginable happened: between 14:00 and 14:20, the weather station in Pinsk recorded an absolute maximum for the entire history of observations — a fantastic +40.4°C.
Pinsk, the capital of Polesie, was joined by Drohichyn (+38.4°C), the same Malaryta (+38.3°C), and Brest (+38.1°C).
This event demonstrates an important geographical shift: the epicenter of extreme temperatures, which historically was located in the southeast, in the Gomel region, has now shifted to the Brest region.
The dynamics of average annual temperature growth in Belarus for 1881—2020 clearly demonstrate: current records are a logical continuation of a trend that sharply accelerated after 1989. Photo: Uladzimir Loginau / Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Such peak values are usually recorded in the second half of July or in August, when the land and reservoirs are maximally heated. The fact that the absolute historical maximum was reached even before the start of the main hot season indicates the colossal energy potential of the atmosphere over the country this year.
Mechanics of the Celestial Oven
Traditionally, Belarus's climate was determined by air masses from temperate latitudes, which moved freely over the flat terrain. However, we are now increasingly finding ourselves under the influence of a so-called blocking anticyclone.
According to explanations from Belhydromet specialists, this phenomenon works like a giant invisible frying pan lid. A dense and immobile dome of high pressure hangs over the region and physically prevents life-saving moist cyclones from the Atlantic from entering – they are forced to bypass Belarus along its northern peripheries, moving far to the north. And under this dome, tropical air, deprived of circulation, systematically heats up day by day.
Deviation of the average annual temperature from the climatic norm for the period 1981—2024. The graph clearly demonstrates: the last decade has been a period of continuous positive temperature anomalies without a single "cold" year. Photo: Volha Iharauana Baklanava / Belhydromet
Shift in the probability of summer temperatures. Blue color — period 1980—1999, orange — 2000—2019. The graph proves: what was previously considered extreme heat (right edge of the graph) is now encountered twice as often. Photo: Uladzimir Fedaravich Loginau / Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Meanwhile, the nature of the heat heavily depends on where this air originated. If a continental tropical mass breaks through (for example, from overheated steppes), we experience dry heat. Humidity during the day drops to a critical 15—20 percent, but due to this, a large diurnal temperature range is maintained — at night, the temperature can drop to comfortable values.
The real climatic challenge begins when tropical air of maritime origin reaches us. It brings with it a phenomenon that climatologists call "tropical nights." During such periods, which, by the way, were regularly recorded in July and August of previous years, the thermometer column does not drop below +20°C even in the darkest hours of the day.
For human health, this is the most dangerous scenario: the body, being in a state of constant heat stress, simply does not have time to recover overnight.
The number of days with a maximum temperature above +25°C in Belarus is steadily increasing (period 1989—2023 analyzed). In cities, the situation is worse due to the "heat island" effect. Photo: Alena Uladzimirauna Kamarouskaya / Belhydromet
In cities, this natural "oven" is intensified by anthropogenic factors. Asphalt, concrete, glass, and steel act as heat accumulators. Scientists call this the "heat island" effect — a phenomenon where the temperature in densely built urban areas can be 5 degrees higher than in green suburbs.
Therefore, the historic +40.4°C in Pinsk at the weather station feels closer to fifty degrees on heated city streets and asphalt, turning outdoor presence into a real threat to life.
Climatic Memory of Belarusian Land
What we observe on thermometers today is only the visible part of a process that began long ago and is recorded not only by weather stations. Temperature fluctuations leave their physical mark deep underground.
In geophysics, there is a concept of "climatic memory" — the ability of the Earth's crust to store information about past temperature changes on the surface. Thermal fluctuations gradually spread deeper, reflecting on thermograms.
Studies of temperature gradients in deep boreholes (from 200 to 650 meters) in various tectonic zones of Belarus — from the Orsha Depression to the Pripyat Trough — conducted in the late 1990s by scientists from the Institute of Geological Sciences of the National Academy of Sciences, showed clear traces of warming.
Analysis of thermograms confirmed that the warming of the Earth's surface by 0.5—1°C has occurred over the last 200—300 years. However, in recent decades, this process has sharply accelerated and taken on new forms.
This dynamic is clearly visible in the movement of isotherms — lines on a map connecting points of equal temperature. According to studies by domestic climatologists, during the period of modern warming, climatic zones have significantly changed their geography. In spring, isotherms shifted northwards by more than 500 kilometers, and in summer, the shift was 150—300 kilometers.
For example, the summer 18.5°C isotherm, which previously ran across the north of the Gomel region, is now recorded in the northern part of the Vitebsk region.
Spatial shift of isotherms of the average temperature of the second decade of January in Belarus (comparison of periods 1955—1987 and 1988—2015) proves the intense movement of the southern climate to the north of the country. Photo: Tatsiana Tabalchuk, Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
For a long time, it was believed that Belarus's climate was warming primarily due to milder winters — this was especially noted until the mid-1990s.
But after 1995, the nature of the country's warming changed fundamentally. The rates of increase in maximum winter temperatures slowed significantly, and the vector of extremes shifted to mid-summer and early autumn.
Spring began to arrive earlier, and the transition from summer to winter temperatures became more prolonged, increasing the length of the growing season. Hot days ceased to be an exception and became a systemic phenomenon for the entire country.
Steppe Climate
School geography textbooks, by which generations of Belarusians studied, are no longer relevant. Traditionally, the country's territory was divided into three agro-climatic regions: Northern, Central, and Southern. However, everything has changed now.
According to recent studies by domestic climatologists (in particular, the works of Viktor Melnik, leading researcher at the Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences, and researcher Tatsiana Tabalchuk), the first, coldest agro-climatic region in northern Belarus has virtually disappeared.
Instead, in the south — predominantly in the Brest and Gomel regions — a completely new, fourth agro-climatic region has formed, which previously simply did not exist in meteorological handbooks. The sum of active temperatures (above +10°C) has significantly increased here.
The area of this new "steppe" zone already exceeds 54 thousand sq. km (a quarter of the country's area), and if current warming rates persist, it will soon occupy most of the country.
Modern map of agro-climatic zones of Belarus, formed by global warming. Note: it no longer features the coldest, "first" zone, which previously occupied the north of the country. Instead, the entire south is now covered by a completely new, "fourth" steppe zone. Photo: Tatsiana Hieorhijeuna Tabalchuk, Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
These climatic shifts inevitably raise questions about water resources. And here there is a paradox: according to Belhydromet statistics, the annual amount of precipitation in Belarus has practically not changed — fluctuations are a negligible 3—5%. However, in this case, statistics are deceiving, as the very nature of rainfall has fundamentally changed.
Instead of uniform prolonged rains that gradually saturated the soil with moisture and were characteristic of our temperate climate, we have witnessed the extremization of precipitation.
A regime of long rainless periods has established itself — when there is no precipitation for weeks, and sometimes even months.
According to research data from the Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences, although the average number of such dry periods per year has not significantly changed, their maximum duration in certain regions has begun to break records. To understand the scale: previously, before the start of the modern climatic shift, a rainless period lasting 20-25 days was already considered a serious challenge for agriculture.
Now, however, the figures have become utterly catastrophic. For example, in 2002 in Sharkawshchyna and in 2019 in Vawkavysk, it did not rain for exactly 69 days. This is more than two months of absolute drought in a row, which for the traditional Belarusian climate, where rains should occur every few weeks, is an indicator of deep stress for the ecosystem. The soil dries out severely and is covered with a dense crust that loses its ability to absorb moisture quickly.
Deviation of monthly precipitation sums from the norm (1989—2024). Note the chronic moisture deficit in May — it creates the preconditions for severe droughts in early summer. Photo: Volha Iharauana Baklanava / Belhydromet
Such droughts usually end with short and very intense downpours. A month's worth of water can fall on the ground in just a few hours. This moisture does not have time to be absorbed by the parched, crusted soil.
Water simply flows into lowlands and reservoirs, causing local urban flooding, but leaving agricultural fields virtually dry. This is a classic model of a continental steppe climate, where water is not a constant resource, but an elemental factor.
How We Will Live
The new temperature regime is a severe stress test for the entire national economy, which for centuries was built under completely different meteorological conditions. When the air heats up to forty degrees, infrastructure materials begin to lose their operational properties.
As Belhydromet specialists note, at air temperatures above +30°C, deformation of road surfaces and railway tracks can occur, as they heat up to significantly higher temperatures in direct sunlight. There is a threat of failure of signaling and communication systems on the railway.
At the same time, the energy system takes a hit: the massive use of air conditioners and fans sharply increases the load on power grids, which, combined with the heat, can lead to accidents at transformer substations.
No less dramatic processes are occurring in agriculture and forestry. The drop in groundwater levels, caused by droughts, critically weakens forest areas. It was climatic stress that made our forests, especially in the south of the country, defenseless against the invasion of bark beetles, which have destroyed huge areas of coniferous forests in recent years.
As for agriculture, it faces a fundamental restructuring. Traditional moisture-loving crops for Belarus, such as flax or potatoes, are now in the zone of maximum risk.
The future requires a transition to drought-resistant potato varieties, expansion of corn cultivation, and in southern regions — possibly industrial cultivation of gourds and the creation of artificial irrigation systems, as in Mediterranean countries.
However, climatic transformation affects the country's territory unevenly. Researchers at the Belarusian State University calculated the so-called climatic vulnerability index for different regions, analyzing data from 42 weather stations over the period of modern warming. The results demonstrate a clear pattern.
The most protected from climatic shocks turned out to be the uplands — Minsk, Navahrudak, Vawkavysk. The terrain helps them maintain a more stable microclimate, so the vulnerability index there is assessed as low or medium.
However, the worst situation developed in the lowlands. High indicators of climatic risk are recorded not only in the south (Polesian Lowland) but also in the north (Polotsk Lowland). Critical vulnerability values, associated with extreme precipitation regimes and temperature fluctuations, are predicted in the Ivacevichy and Hantsavichy regions. Here, changes in nature may be felt most strongly.
Distribution of the climatic vulnerability index across the territory of Belarus for the period 1989—2022. The most dangerous situation is observed in the lowlands, while the uplands remain more protected from weather extremes. Photo: Aryna Nebyshynets / BSU
The record +40.4°C in Pinsk puts an end to discussions about whether global climate change threatens us.
Belarus's climate will no longer return to the state of moderate, humid, and cool stability of the second half of the 20th century. The country's climate has begun to acquire the distinct features of a forest-steppe zone.
Now the main question is how quickly our urban planning, energy system, transport standards, and agriculture will be able to adapt to a reality where tropical nights and multi-week droughts have become the norm.