“If Russia Wins. One of the Scenarios.” What is this bestseller about?
“This book is quite small. And in this sense, it is perfect,” — writes Andrus Khrapavitski.
Russian recruit. Photo from social media
The plot of the book “If Russia Wins” (If Russia wins. A Scenario) by German political scientist Carlo Masala is not about Russia conquering all of Europe. It is rather a geopolitical thought experiment about how a Russian victory in Ukraine could provoke a global crisis.
It all begins with Russia seizing Narva and the island of Hiiumaa in Estonia. This attack is intentionally limited. Russia does not seize the entire territory of an independent state. Instead, it bites off a piece.
This is the key idea of the book: Moscow tests NATO, the West, Europeans, Ukrainians, Belarusians for resilience, rather than trying to achieve a major victory in one campaign, in one swift move.
As one might guess, NATO proves unprepared for a serious response. Events then unfold as follows: The United States increasingly focuses on internal problems and is less inclined to assume a leadership role. Simultaneously, China creates tension in Asia, diverting Washington's attention. Russia exploits these contradictions by launching a pinpoint test of NATO's resolve.
What can be said here? Such a prognosis is too grim for me to feel at ease. The Baltic states have warned Europe and America about Russia's imperial ambitions for many years. In the West, no one paid much attention to this. Now they have. Does this mean that Europe or the United States have more resolve for a rebuff? Judge for yourselves.
Masala's version is what many analysts consider a realistic scenario. Yet, it seems to me that things will not happen this way. At least not in this form. Russia is bogged down in its aggressive war. The hope for even some semblance of victory seems illusory, unless the Kremlin forces Lukashenka to throw Belarusian security forces into the fray. Even in that case, success is far from guaranteed. Ukraine has transformed into a powerful military force, and Europe today has both the political will and the resources to support Ukraine. With the US, everything is a bit more complicated… But let's change the subject.
My main problem is not with the book itself, but with my liberal worldview. I still cannot believe how it came to be that we live in this period of incomprehensible folly. Too much blood has already been shed in Eastern Europe. It's time to stop this. It's time to return to at least some semblance of normalcy. Isn't that right?