German economist who successfully predicted the last three football World Champions made his bets for 2026
Joachim Clement published the data from his new study, which is based on a mathematical model he developed.
Micky van de Ven, Netherlands national football team player, March 27, 2026. Photo: AP Photo / Peter Dejong
While during the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, Paul the Octopus became famous for correctly predicting all of Germany's match results, now the role of the most famous football predictor has been taken over by German economist Joachim Clement. As BBC writes, his statistical model has already accurately identified the future World Champion three times in a row — in 2014 it was Germany, in 2018 France, and in 2022 Argentina.
This year, Clement's model favored the Netherlands. If the Dutch team does indeed win the title, it will be the economist's fourth consecutive successful prediction.
The system he developed not only identifies the probable winner but also models the course of the entire tournament.
According to Clement's calculations, one of the main sensations could be Japan's victory over Brazil in the second round of the playoffs. At this same stage of the tournament, he believes, the Scotland national team will also be eliminated, losing to South Korea.
The model also predicts England's advancement to the semi-finals. However, there the English might lose to Portugal, who will once again block their path to the final — similar to what happened at the 2006 World Cup.
Clement himself views his successes much more modestly than many of his admirers. He emphasizes that he originally created the model not to make money from bets and not to accurately predict the future. On the contrary, his goal was to show how overconfident economists sometimes are when they try to forecast events influenced by too many random factors.
After the prediction for Germany's victory in 2014 came true, Clement assumed that subsequent calculations would show the random nature of this success. But the model proved correct again in 2018 and 2022. As a result, many began to perceive it almost as an infallible tool.
What does victory depend on?
The economist reminds that the success of a national team indeed depends on a number of factors that can be included in calculations. Among them are the country's population, its level of economic development, climatic conditions, and its position in the FIFA rankings. However, these indicators, according to Clement, explain only part of the result.
Luck plays an equally important role. In matches between teams of similar level, everything can be decided by the players' form on a specific day, a controversial referee's decision, or a random incident — for example, whether the ball hits the post or ends up in the back of the net. Such moments are practically impossible to foresee in advance.
Today, Clement lives and works in the UK, where he serves as a strategist at the investment bank Panmure Liberum. He admits that on the eve of every World Cup, football predictions become a kind of break from his main job and an opportunity to momentarily distract himself from international crises, wars, and other disturbing news.
Along with the popularity of predictions, responsibility also grows. According to the economist, after the publication of the latest forecast, some of his colleagues even bet money on the Netherlands to win. Therefore, he jokes that if the Dutch are eliminated from the tournament prematurely, he might have to work remotely from home the next day.