Yesterday's explosion at a missile base near Orenburg could have been another failed test of the Sarmat missile.
An explosion at a strategic missile forces base in the city of Yasny, Orenburg Region, which occurred on Friday afternoon, was the result of unsuccessful tests of Russia's newest Sarmat nuclear missile. This is the opinion of military experts, writes The Moscow Times.
Screenshot from the video
In the footage captured by eyewitnesses, a missile flies out of the silo, rises into the air, then tilts, begins to burn, and falls apart, leaving behind a giant mushroom-shaped cloud of orange-purple hue.
By all indications, the most likely candidate is «Sarmat,» believes Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research.
Russia has been developing this missile since 2013 to replace outdated Soviet land-based missiles. Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that «Sarmat» would enter service in 2020, but the missile never flew. The previous attempt to test it about a year ago ended unsuccessfully: the missile exploded in the silo at the Plesetsk test site, leaving behind a giant crater.
Most likely, the «Sarmat» tests failed again, agrees Etienne Marcuz, a research fellow at the French Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS). The military urgently needs to certify the missile, as Putin announced its appearance in the troops this year, the expert reminds.
The missile fell 1 km from the silo, leaving behind a 70‑meter crater, Marcuz notes, citing Sentinel 2 satellite images.
This time, the missile was trying to launch towards the Kura test site in Kamchatka: for the «Yasny» and Kura regions, Russia issued NOTAMs — notices to pilots with a recommendation to fly around dangerous zones, notes military expert Dmitry Kornev.
He agrees that the fallen missile could be «Sarmat». However, he does not rule out that an unsuccessful test of «Voevoda» (Satan in NATO classification) — the oldest of Russia's missiles, which has been in service since the 1980s — took place near Orenburg. Both missiles are liquid-fueled, which left a cloud of characteristic color.
Pavel Podvig doubts: «Voevoda» was last tested in 2013. According to SIPRI, the Russian Strategic Missile Forces have only 34 such missiles left. Although some «Voevodas» may be in service, it is extremely unlikely that the missile forces decided to launch one of them, writes Podvig.
The Yasny base also houses the latest Avangard missile systems. However, these missiles use a «hot launch» from the silo, while the video shows a «cold launch,» the expert points out.
«Judging by everything, this is another failure for the Sarmat program. It is extremely unlikely that the missile will be deployed in 2025, as announced by the President of Russia at the beginning of this month,» concludes the expert.
The failure of «Sarmat» «will cause serious losses to Russian deterrence in the medium term,» writes Etienne Marcuz:
«The replacement of obsolete R-36M2 missiles [»Voevoda» — The Moscow Times], on which a significant part of Russia's strategic warheads are concentrated, is postponed to a later date, and their maintenance, which was carried out by Ukraine until 2014, remains in question.»
In total, according to SIPRI, Russia's strategic nuclear forces include 333 land-based missiles. These are mainly Yars complexes (206 units), including mobile ones, each of which is capable of carrying 4 warheads of 250 kilotons each.
Russia also has 78 Topol missiles with one warhead of 800 kilotons, 12 Avangard complexes and about three dozen Voevodas. In addition, Russia has 192 submarine-launched ballistic missiles («Sineva» and «Bulava»), according to SIPRI data.